Job done, take our money and Enjoy

Hi
Another good day for us yesterday as we once again traded price back to the Daily pivot for another small, but simple winner. Today we will see our 5000th page view for the blog site and a thank you to all who continue to support it.

Context
Really its past being about what Fed Chairman Bernanke says on Friday at Jackson Hole. The fact is now there is an ever rising expectation as the importance of the speech and there will almost certainly be a reaction to it. If Captain Ben brings in Quantitive Easing 3 in the US the Stock markets should Rally and the US Dollar should fall. There is enough expectation on the speech that if he does not the opposite is likely. For now the market is stopping and waiting, and we must do the same…Put away your trading platform until Monday.. if you are in the Uk read about the premature end of captain Strauss, in Australia pontificate on the possible end of Dingo Deans, in NZ bask in the glory of the All Blacks… but whatever you do now is not the time to be tempted back into the market. We have done a good job this week and this is the time to enjoy that, and not to undo it.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot has extended away from weekly a little and we have the perfect bullish set up with the pivots. Price sitting below daily pivot and breaking up is my favorite pivot trade but it has gone and with it our best trade of the day.
Today on most time frames is the story of the Triangle family… Triangles are the family of indecision especially the symmetrical triangles that we see at the moment.  The triangles are getting closing and the daily ranges are shrinking. We need not to be confused the Triangle family are a sign of indecision to the markets, they are a sign of complete decision to us---- STAY OUT is there message and I will be abiding it.
As the market approaches the Friday announcements price may stay with in the previous highs and lows.
The 4H chart is showing lower highs and higher lows..

The Day Ahead –
We have had a great week with some really good trades… time to head out and spend some of the hard earned money.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.
 NO TRADE:  I wont be trading today or tomorrow
Short entry:
Long Entry.

News Today

All the best
PBT

Another trade back to DP?

Hi
We celebrated the return to Singapore yesterday with a nice early winner. We traded price back to the daily pivot depending on which entry signal it was a profit of around 1%.

Context
ECB Chairman Draghi has pulled off this Friday’s speech at Jackson Hole citing his heavy workload. This will bring full focus on Captain Bernanke’s speech and the US dollar. Opinions seem divided as to if he will unroll QE 3 in the US. Markets are waiting with caution QE 3 would be expected to push stocks up and the US Dollar down. Now there is an expectation for the speech if nothing happens we will have a reverse response. This kind of unpredictability has many traders sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot has extended away from weekly a little and we have the perfect bullish set up with the pivots. However as the market approaches the Friday announcements price may stay with in the previous highs and lows.
The 4H chart is showing lower highs and lower lows..

The Day Ahead –
Is very similar to yesterday, with the market expected to stay in the range and be a bit choppy we are looking to be in and out of the market reasonably quickly. The longer we sit in a trade the more risk that we take of a one of event stopping us.
We know that the EUR/USD tests the pivot 80% of the time. This offers an immediate trading opportunity at a risk of about 1-1.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.
 NO TRADE:

Short entry: We can enter off the recent low and trade down to the Daily pivot, which is also the 382 Fib retracement of yesterday’s move.  After that I will wait to see if the DP is broken and if so will look for a break below and then test of my trendline and previous support for another possible entry.

Long Entry: I would be cautious with the long entry today, I would like to see a bounce of DP, and then a retracement back to my trendline, and an entry there.

News Today

1:30pm USD Prelim GDP q/q
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
All the best
PBT

Plenty of options in slowly drifting market

Hi

I have to say it’s nice to be back writing this at my own desk with the comfort of everything I need being close by.
Yesterday was a typical UK public holiday with volatility well down and a range for the day of around 50 pips. This morning we have already seen a little look to the downside when price has tested the weekly pivot and yesterday’s Support 1 level, before bouncing.

Context
There appears to be ongoing discussions about Greece’s continued membership of the EU with comments from any of the involved parties likely to bounce price away. We also have the increased possibility of QE3 in the US offering a potentially weaker US Dollar. The market is largely on hold while it waits for the speeches on Friday of the chairmen of the Federal Reserve (Bernanke) and the European Central Bank (Draghi). If My Bernanke starts Quantative easing Version 3 in the United Sates on Friday this will be good for stock markets and bad for the US Dollar. US dollar weakness would see the EUR/USD rise.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot is pulling back towards weekly Pivot in a sign the market is consolidating. While Daily Pivot is above weekly pivot it is Bullish overall, but the fact Daily Pivot is falling does suggest some momentum down against the overall move.
The charts show a lot of Wedge or symmetrical Triangle type patterns. This is normally a sign of indecision and looks to be the case again.
The 4H char offers little clarity to help.

The Day Ahead –
With the market expected to stay in the range and be a bit choppy we are looking to be in and out of the market reasonably quickly. The longer we sit in a trade the more risk that we take of a one of event stopping us.
We know that the EUR/USD tests the pivot 80% of the time. This offers an immediate trading opportunity at a risk of about 1-1.

The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.
 NO TRADE:
Short entry: WE seem to have a number of options for short entries. My favorite is the bounce off DP. I would suggest a tight target of even the Support level of 1.2482 as we don’t want to me in the market to long between Daily and Weekly pivot.
Another option is a break and test of WP, while unlikely this would provide the possibility of a bigger move and better profits.
 Long Entry: WE have the current long option where we trade it back to the trendline. Target about 18, stop about 22 on my charts. My favorite long would see a break of the Resistance trendline and then an A-B-C entry long. Again a conservative target of 1.2535 would do me.

News Today

USD CB Consumer Confidence


All the best
PBT

Public Holiday in the UK

As we focus our trading on the UK open i dont normally trade UK Public holidays as the market lacks volume and predictability.

With the combination of the UK Holiday and my Jetlag i will leave the blog until tomorrow.

I am back In Singapore where i am best set up for writing the blog so will be looking to have a good week.

I suggest taking the day off and trying to get clear on your plan.

All the best

PLB

Nice winner, as the market starts to move again

Hi

It was another good day for us yesterday with those who have waited patiently through the choppy, rangy last few days finally rewarded with a nice trend continuation bounce. The Trade was when price bounced off the Daily pivot following a nice low test reversal bar and anything up to 6% was on offer. The move ended at 105 pips just short of our over extension level of price moving away from the daily pivot of 110-120 pips.

I would like to thank THE DOMINION, Dominion Road Auckland for giving me a space and internet access to write and publish the blog today.

 Lets see what EUR/USD may offer us today...

Context
There appears to be ongoing discussions about Greece’s continued membership of the EU with comments from any of the involved parties likely to bounce price away. We also have the increased possibility of QE3 in the US offering a weaker US Dollar.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot is now a little stretched at 160 pips above weekly pivot. This makes the likelihood of a test of the level even stronger.
The 4H chart now offers higher highs and higher lows, if looking a little over brought.

The Day Ahead –
I still like the long after a retest….
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.

 NO TRADE:
Short entry: I would need an aggressive break of DP. And a retracement to a lower high, if I got this and a price action reversal I would be looking for a sharp run down.
Long Entry: I would be looking for a good reversal pattern off DP. It would be very similar trade to the one that served us so well yesterday.

All the best

PBT

Finally a decent move

Hi
Firstly I apologise for not publishing a blog yesterday. While I mentioned it may be difficult while I am away yesterday in the run up to Trader Talk Radio I simply forgot. I do apologise for that. I cant wait to get back to Singapore where I am a little better set up for these things..
.
 Lets see what  EUR/USD may have install for us…

Well finally yesterday we saw a day where price didn’t cross 1.2330 and didn’t come back and finish where it started. The move was a big one with prices extention of 150 pips away from DP being a big distance.

Context
The Euro is starting to move as expectations of ECB help for Greece and Italy rises. I cant find an actual source for the speculation and remain a slight skeptic on the matter.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot is above weekly pivot, I am expecting price today to come back an test DP, and then sit pretty falt while we await the FOMC minutes.

The Day Ahead –
I do like the long after a retest….
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.

 NO TRADE:
Short entry: I would need a beak of DP. And a retracement to a lower high
Long Entry: I would be looking for a good reversal pattern off DP.

All the best
PBT

The Euro rests, and it wont rest for long

Hi

Welcome to our blog. Lets see what  EUR/USD may have install for us…
We again saw the euro cross the 1.2330 again before not really going anywhere. It was another day that offered very little.

Context
The Euro is resting with last week’s range of 130 normally being a daily range. We now see Daily, weekly and monthly pivot as well as the 1.2330 level all grouped. Price has simply gone nowhere and while the Euro rests we must rest.

Technical Analysis
Everything has come together and will act like a magnet for price. We need to sit and wait until prce confirms a move away. The Euro is resting and it wont rest long...

The Day Ahead –
No Trading today… direction is a guess and I don’t want to guess.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.

NO TRADE: I won’t be trading today. I await a clearer picture.

Short entry:
Long Entry:

All the best
PBT

Blog Publishing times

For people new to my Blog. I don't normally trade Fridays so i don't post on them. I usually post the blog on Mondays to Thursdays about a hour before UK Open.
Its great to see so many new people, please let me know if there is anything i can do to make the service better for you.
Safe Trading

Paul

Do i smell a better day coming....

Hi

Welcome to our blog coming live to you from the Sydney live trading Floor.. Lets see what  EUR/USD may have install for us…

Wednesday saw the euro cross the 1.2330 level again before not really going anywhere. It was another day that offered very little. However today looks a bit better with plenty of lines coming onto the chart.

Context
The picture still remains a bit confused with poor Euro data being balanced by the hope of ECB help for indebted countries.  Yesterday Greece suggested they would like longer for their austerity program, and the Germans suggested Greece knew the rules. So the possibility of Greece being pushed out of the Euro didn’t create any major move. People have taken there positions and are waiting….unfortunately we have to wait with them...

Technical Analysis
We once again have the pivots nicely lined up in bearish formation with the Daily, below weekly and the weekly below monthly. We have further confirmation of direction from the fact the DP has moved down. Unfortunately for us we have already had the test of pivot and a move down begin.
The other major factors on the chart are the symmetrical triangles, or pennants on most time frames.  Breaks of these levels will provide more confirmation of directions.
The 4 H chart is in a symmetrical triangle and the break of the triangle, will be a strong confirmation.
The big question today is can we break away from the 1.2330, I think we might….

The Day Ahead –
I like the look of today.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….

 NO TRADE: No worries
Short entry: I would like a retracement backup to the trend line, and a price action confirmation.
Long Entry: I am looking for a break of Daily pivot, and the trend line and a retracement back down to either of them (Providing the entry is Above DP)  and a price action confirmation.

All the best
PBT

It is like the Movie Ground Hog Day, its getting Dull lets get a move on here

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief 

I am in Sydney today and its nice to have a little more time for writing the blog, unfortunately all the time in the world wont stop this feeling a bit like groundhog day.

Tuesday saw the Euro look up and then push down, as it once again breaks 1.2330 but does go anywhere. 

Context

People are waiting and watching the Euro, fundamentally to see if the ECB will help fund Spanish and Italian debt, while technically we are checking if this move has gone far enough….

Technical Analysis

The DP is now above the weekly pivot, and continues to slowly push up. But the story right now is about 1.2330 and the support below (weekly pivot) and above (Daily pivot). Until we see these areas left behind we need to stay out of the chop and watch and wait.

The 4 H chart has a symmetrical triangle forming and break of that would be a great indication we ae on the move again.

The Day Ahead –

Its always nice in the blog to be positive an have clear directions and information but the market doesn’t work that way. The picture is unclear to me, and we really need to give this some space so it will show us what it wants to do. I will be especially careful between the weekly and daily pivot, price could get stuck in there for some time.

The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….

I suggest doing something else today, but if you must….

 NO TRADE: I am not going to trade today between Daily Pivot and Weekly pivot.

Short entry: I would like to see some buying foirst, then a sell, and a retracement to the Monthly Pivot for a lower high.

Long Entry: I will wait until the symmetrical triangle has been broken and retested… will be a good trade if it happens.

All the best

PBT

1.2330 continues to dominate

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief
Monday saw the Euro look down and then push up, as it continues to break, but hang around the 1.2330 level.

Context
The picture still remains a bit confused with poor Euro data being balanced by the hope of ECB help for indebted countries. The news remains bad but the ECB has done enough to make traders cautious of short positions. Yesterdays Italian Bond auction was slightly better than aexpectation but nowhere near good enough to see the Eur test the upside properly.

Technical Analysis
While the DP has been drawn in towards the weekly pivot,  we still have the a bearish formation, with daily below weekly, which is below monthly, and a slow run down looks likely. The Daily pivot has risen which opposes the bearish theory.
The 4 H chart is a shows higher Highs and higher lows in a bigger picture, but the more recent price action is less clear.

The Day Ahead –
Its always nice in the blog to be positive an dhave clear directions and information but the market doesn’t work that way. The picture is unclear to me, and we really need to give this some space so it will show us what it wants to do. I will be especially careful between the monthly and daily pivot, prce could get stuck in there for some time.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I am not going to trade today between Daily  Pivot and monthly pivot.
Short entry: I would need to see a break of D-P and then a retracement to a lower high below pivot and the Trendline.
Long Entry: Ideally I would like to see a test of the 1.2330 level, followed by an aggressive buy, and a retracement to a lower high on or above MP.

All the best
PBT

Some good hints at direction, and need to wait on a confirmation

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Thursday saw us pick the direction but I wouldn’t have traded it as we had so many support levels lined up. In the end price broke all of them and then tested the weekly pivot. This was a possible entry for us, but I didn’t take it myself. Friday saw the market ease down and then spike up before settling close to where it started.
Context
The picture still remains a bit confused with poor Euro data being balanced by the hope of ECB help for indebted countries. The news remains bad but the ECB has done enough to make traders cautious pf short positions.
Technical Analysis
Daily Pivot swops places with weekly pivot and we now have the perfect bearish formation, with daily below weekly, which is below monthly, and a slow run down looks likely. The Daily pivot has dropped which supports this bearish theory.
The 4 H chart is a little less clear with an inside bar followed by an enclosing bar. This is a timely reminder on a Monday morning that we need to watch and wait and let the market tell us what it wanst to do.
The Day Ahead –
With Daily pivot moving down, if we get a test we are expecting a break and a slow push down.  The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I am not going to trade today between Daily  and monthly pivot.
Short entry: I would like to see a test of DP, and then a leg down, and a retracement to a lower high for an entry.
Long Entry: I am looking for a beak of monthly pivot and then a test with a higher low as an entry.

All the best
PBT

The way looks short, but we have to much stuff in the way....

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday saw our hint at approaching extension levels play out with a sell off. We had a beautiful execution of our short trade with our level broken and then tested, with the next support level providing an ideal target.

The picture still remains a bit confused with poor Euro data being balanced by the hope of ECB help for indebted countries. I note the decision on releasing further funds to Greece has been put back and there must be a possibility that as rumored Greece hasn’t made the threshold and the European leaders need some time to decide if they will start damage control shortly and then stop he payment, or allow the ECB some leeway. This issue may well decide the mid-term future of he currency.

Technical Analysis
Daily Pivot drops down and is now a more comfortable distance from the weekly pivot. WE have the set up where pivot is moving in a direction, and price might test it heading in the same direction (DOWN), and stats wise this is a great short set up. However I wont be playing it today as below price we have DP, MP, 1.2330 Support, and WP. Its a lot of support to break and is likely to lead to a choppy ride down.
The 4H chart now has a lower mini low, and looks to be putting in what looks a lower high, bouncing of a resistance level. My bias here is short.

The Day Ahead –
With Daily pivot moving down, if we get a test we are expecting a break and a slow push down.  The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I am not going to trade short today
Short entry: I expect price action to be short today, but there are too many strong support levels, and I will leave the shorts alone until the levels are broken.
Long Entry: I will go long today, after another higher high, and a pullback to a higher low, with a price action trigger to enter.

All the best
PBT

The move up starts to extend

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday saw the Euro push higher before once again coming back to finish nearly exactly where it started.

Context
Contusing talk of ECB supporting debt for under pressure countries continues to hold the Euro above recent levels.

Technical Analysis

Daily Pivot moves up again today and now pushes 97 pips above weekly pivot, with monthly pivot in between. The 97 pips isn’t yet at the overextended level but it is approaching it. We will be expecting a slow push up today but nothing to drastic.
The 4H chart is looking ‘toppy” and again suggests a stalling of the momentum up.

The Day Ahead –
With Daily pivot moving up, we are looking for a move up today but with levels of extension being approached it should be a slow move.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I won’t trade between the 1.2380 level and the daily pivot today.
Short entry: I need to see a break of 1.2380, and a pullback to a lower high. Shorts at half risk today.
Long Entry: I would like to see a break of trendline, followed by a test from above, followed by a break of DP, with another higher low testing pivot.

 No RED News Today GMT

All the best
PBT

A couple of good possibilities as consolidation continues

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was another good day for us with our long trade getting a nice price action trigger off the Monthly pivot.

Context
The Euro finished the day close to where it started as it consolidated after last weeks moves. Continuing speculation that the ECB will buy debt t0 keep borrowing costs down holds the Euro up for now.

Technical Analysis
We currently have daily pivot above weekly pivot, with the monthly pivot between them. Statistics favor upward momentum on such days, but I expect it to be pretty slow. However yesterday we didn’t see a test of DP and big moves often follow days with no test.
The 4H has higher highs and higher lows, but it has just put in a high test at the top of the channel and now looks to be in search of a support level.

The Day Ahead –
We have already seen the statistical norms, where price attackers the DP travelling in different directions, and then the near certain retest. Statistically on 75% of occasions price will finish in the direction of the pivot love (long today)
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I won’t trade between monthly and weekly pivot.
Short entry: We would need a lower low, and then a retest of DP, with a price action confirmation….Target Monthly pivot
Long Entry: I would need a higher high, and then a bounce of DP or Trend line. I will wait for the another leg (higher High, and higher low) to enter on for confirmation

 No RED News Today GMT

All the best
PBT

Its doing what?

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Well last week ended with an extended run up on the Euro, as the market consumed varying news.

Context
After a solid rally to end the week we will wait and see what hints we get on direction this morning.
Technical Analysis

We currently have daily and weekly pivot over laying each other just to he south of Monthly pivot. When Daily and Weekly are together they normally act as a strong magnet, but with monthly pivot and support to be broken im not sure a pivot test is certain today.
The 4H has higher highs and higher lows, but it has just put in a high test at the top of the channel and now looks to be in search of a support level.

The Day Ahead –
The 1.2330 support level is he key today. A test of this level and amonthly Pivot is likely and if the levels hold it will be the most bullish sign on the Euro for some months. A break of the level does openb up a test of DP>
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
NO TRADE: I won’t trade between monthly and daily pivot.
Short entry: We would need a break and retest if DP.
Long Entry: Looking for a bounce off the 1.2330 area.

 RED News Today GMT
Aug 6
 2:00pm     USD     Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
All the best
PBT

Stas hold up yesterday, and the next few days

Well yesterday certainly supported the stats with price breaking daily pivot, retesting and ending well below. In the middle of course was a massive bar on the news.

I am travelling for the next three weeks to speak at various trading events. I will try and get the blog written as per usual Mon-Thurs but please forgive me if ts a bit late or brief occasionally.

The recent stats say break, retest and lower... lets see

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday saw Euro price chop around waiting for Captain Bernanke to hint at everything and say nothing again… the man should be a politician. His words send the over brought market smashing down. WE got pretty close to a couple of our entries yesterday, but the bars on the long were to long, and we entries on the short were above the pivot and the confluence area. The short of the trendline would have been very profitable thanks to the news, but if you go short just above daily pivot 100 times, you will find its not a great plan generally.

Context
The Euro is waiting… News day 1 is over and we now wait day 2, this is potentially the biggest day of the three. If the ECB step back from Mr Draghi’s earlier comments the Euro might have a decent push down. The ECNB started damage control yesterday and this now looks a likely scenario. Not only bad news for the Euro but a clear sign of struggles for control in the Euro zone spilling out.
The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed yesterday and ECB today  it may well chop around on the that first.

Technical Analysis
It’s a new month and Monthly pivot has come screaming down towards Weekly pivot. Daily pivot while still above weekly pivot has tucked in a bit closer. We currently have price rising towards a fallen daily pivot, in the last 2 months when we have seen this we have a 57% chance of breaking pivot, if it breaks we have an 87% chance of a retest, and a 75% chance overall price will end the day below daily pivot. So todays shorts are at full risk, longs are at reduced risk.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower high and a lower low, so the shorts are favored.

The Day Ahead –
Overall the market is likely to range awaiting the ECB, we will look for some entries, but need quick take profit 1’s and a move of stop to break even.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peaks….
NO TRADE:
Short entry: Looking for a reversal bar off Daily Pivot, we only have a 43% chance of bounce here but if we get it, we will probably get a bigger move down. If not we will look to trade the first high after the beak of DP back to DP, and if DP is re-broken look for the first lower high.

Long Entry: WE would need DP broken and retested, would look for a conservative entry and enter on the creation of the next new high.

 RED News Today GMT I recommend staying out of the market around the ECB press conference
Tentative     EUR     Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 6.43|3.2
12:45pm     EUR      Minimum Bid Rate 0.75% 0.75%
1:30pm      EUR     ECB Press Conference
1:30pm     USD     Unemployment Claims 375K 353K

All the best
PBT