1.2330 continues to dominate

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief
Monday saw the Euro look down and then push up, as it continues to break, but hang around the 1.2330 level.

Context
The picture still remains a bit confused with poor Euro data being balanced by the hope of ECB help for indebted countries. The news remains bad but the ECB has done enough to make traders cautious of short positions. Yesterdays Italian Bond auction was slightly better than aexpectation but nowhere near good enough to see the Eur test the upside properly.

Technical Analysis
While the DP has been drawn in towards the weekly pivot,  we still have the a bearish formation, with daily below weekly, which is below monthly, and a slow run down looks likely. The Daily pivot has risen which opposes the bearish theory.
The 4 H chart is a shows higher Highs and higher lows in a bigger picture, but the more recent price action is less clear.

The Day Ahead –
Its always nice in the blog to be positive an dhave clear directions and information but the market doesn’t work that way. The picture is unclear to me, and we really need to give this some space so it will show us what it wants to do. I will be especially careful between the monthly and daily pivot, prce could get stuck in there for some time.
The pair is especially vulnerable to surprise news at the moment and still needs some caution.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am still sure traders looking up to sell the peaks….
 NO TRADE: I am not going to trade today between Daily  Pivot and monthly pivot.
Short entry: I would need to see a break of D-P and then a retracement to a lower high below pivot and the Trendline.
Long Entry: Ideally I would like to see a test of the 1.2330 level, followed by an aggressive buy, and a retracement to a lower high on or above MP.

All the best
PBT