Lets enjoy a couple of days off....

Hi

I guess I have to start with an apology for yesterday’s error. The short trade really should have had DS2 as a target in a market as choppy and messy as this. The support level was a bridge to far and what should have been a small winner turned into a loser. I simply missed the level, live when price hit it I knew I had got it wrong, but it was too late for the blog. This is a frustrating part of trading.

Context
Today the market sits and waits for the announcement of ECB chairman Draghi.. Some think Draghi will announce unlimited bond buying to lower borrowing costs for Italy and Spain (although he doesn’t appear to have the funds for that), others think he will announce nothing of interest. And that’s the problem. We are all guessing and his announcement could have a major impact on the currency 200-300 pips either way is very likely for an extreme announcement or lack of it.
Its pretty simple for us. Today the institutions will be establishing positions based on their predictions which will make the market choppy, the news could make the market volatile. We are out for today and with NFP tomorrow we are out for tomorrow.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot is back above weekly pivot which is bullish, but we have potentially our bets pivot set up. Daily Pivot has moved down and price could potentially cross it heading down… but alas not today for us….
The 4H chart has still failed to put in a higher high and gave us our first warning of a loss of upwards momentum. It is now waiting for news.
We are also reversing of the long term channel line. The news will decide if hat line is broken and this long run down is over, or if we bounce and the EUR heads down, possible way down.

The Day Ahead –
We are out today. It makes yesterdays error all the more frustrating, we should be resting with profits and peice of mind. Trading has no mercy on errors.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I need to wait for some evidence.
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry:
BEST Long Entry..
Other entries


All the best
PBT