Another symmetrical Triangle to break, another winner to find

Hi

Its always great when we get winners on consecutive days and yesterdays was a good one. We waited for Price action to confirm a direction by taking out the high and then pulling back, the higher low was a doji type bar followed by a low test and we should have been in. Risk on the trade of under 15 pips and a target of up to 45 should have seen us take 2-3% out of a simple price action trade.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Greek situation may get some form of resolution latter in the week and that may create a lift in the Euro. But even this should be small as we don’t really seem to have a solution that solves anything.  Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for, and America seems to be making only slow progress on the Fiscal Cliff issues.

The market will watch Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement today with interest. How has election victory and job security affected the Fed policies?

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. The stock markets are starting to price in the possibility of problems in the US but the currency markets don’t seem concerned as yet.

Technical Analysis;  Daily pivot remains above weekly pivot even if is between weekly and monthly. Daily pivot has been tested and I am slightly Bullish because of that. Price action conflicts on our time frames with the 30 minute chart looking like a triple top so bearish, but the 4h chart still has higher lows and highs so is Bullish.

So the break of the symmetrical triangle will again be key this morning, a break and close outside the triangle is the first real sign of direction.

The Day Ahead –   It looks lke it could be quiet while we wait for Ben Bernanke to speak this evening.

Bias - Cautious, I will wait, it will tell me

 NO TRADE:  

BEST Short entry; If we get a break below daily pivot and the same move takes out the recent low, a pullback to any resistance I will look for the trade down.

 BEST Long Entry;  A break of the last high (and Weekly R1 level), and a close above the triangle would see be looking to get an entry and target DR1.

For pictures http://www.actionstowealth.com/looking-for-another-break-of-a-symmetrical-triangle-and-another-winner/

Other Entries

RED NEWS Today

All Day	EUR			Eurogroup Meetings
	1:30pm	USD			Building Permits			0.87M	0.89M
	5:15pm	USD			Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Promising start to the week

Hi

Thursday should have seen our readers make a nice profit as the first close above the Weekly Pivot confirmed direction as expected and then gave a lovely step up and a nice 2% or so profit. Its another nice simple trade and I hope many of you got another winner.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Greek situation may get some form of resolution latter in the week and that may create a lift in the Euro. But even this should be small as we don’t really seem to have a solution that solves anything.  Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for, and America seems to be making only slow progress on the Fiscal Cliff issues.

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. The stock markets are starting to price in the possibility of problems in the US but the currency markets don’t seem concerned as yet.

Technical Analysis;  Daily pivot remains above weekly pivot even if both have dropped, this gives me a bullish feel to my thinking. We have come out of the Asian session with a symmetrical Triangle and have just had the top of the triangle broken, at this point price has reacted and put in a double top but as long as price stays above the triangle I am Bullish. A close inside the triangle and I am interested in the trade back to DP.

The Day Ahead –   It’s a Monday we need to be patient and let the big money set us a direction.  Price action will scream a direction here by both taking out the current high and closing above the Triangle (BULLISH) or by taking out the last Low in which case I would be bearish.

On another day I may consider taking the current high test bar down to DP, but on a Monday I would like another confirmation first.

Bias-  Cautious, I will wait, it will tell me

 NO TRADE:  Between Weekly and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; If we get a break below the current low and a pullback to any resistance I will look for the trade down to Daily Pivot.

 BEST Long Entry;  A break of the last high, and a close above the triangle would see be looking to get an entry and target MS1/DR1.

Other Entries;  If I get an aggressive sell down to through Weekly pivot and a pullback, I will look for a reversal and an entry short.

RED NEWS Today

3:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Price action will scream a direction with its next high, and once it does I will be keen to be in

Yesterday we should have profited from our long trade suggestion. We got a nice move up followed by a pull-back to DR1 and a reversal to Weekly pivot. We had two possible entries and depending which we took we will have made between 1 and 1.5% on the trade.

This blog can now be viewed at www.actionstowealth.com

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Eurozone has rioting in the streets as group protest the austerity measures and the damage they are doing to growth and job prospects, and yet I think even the protestors know countries are going to have to find a way to live with in their budgets.

The Greek situation looks at an impasse, Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for an America has got a new expression ‘Fiscal Cliff” in our vocabulary and may soon bring the old expression “Damn Shambles” back in to vogue.

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. All we can do is be patient in the belief that the people who run these countries have proven they can create more Damn shambles than you would expect and the next one will give us a direction to trade.

Technical Analysis;  The pivots are our leaders and they are nicely lined up Bearishly, so I like the shorts. I am aware that my 4h chart currently has a higher high and a higher low and I need to watch this. If we currently put in a lower high, I am in business but if we get a higher high I will look to trade the bullish route and wait for the next lower high.

We have had a bounce off goodish support 1.2677 and have now reached Weekly pivot, we have seen a spike above WP but no close. This looks like the place where we could get the lower high on both the 30m and 4h chats to confirm the next bear run.

The Day Ahead –   Price action will scream a direction with its next high, and once it does I will be keen to be in. I am bearish overall and it looks like we might get some cleaner opportunities than we have in the last week.

Bias-  Bearish but watching price action, waiting for it to scream a direction at me.

 NO TRADE:  Between Weekly and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; If the recent high holds and is a lower high below weekly pivot I am keen to get short. A beak of DP and a pullback to any resistance will see me try and push in. I will watch yesterdays pivot level but target 1.2677.

 BEST Long Entry;  If I get a close above weekly pivot, I will look for the first pullback and go long targeting DR1 and then MS1.

Other Entries;  

RED NEWS Today

1:30pm	USD		Core CPI m/m			0.1%	0.1%
	1:30pm	USD		Unemployment Claims			372K	355K
	3:00pm	USD		Philly Fed Manufacturing Index			1.1	5.7
	6:20pm	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Pull back provides better looking day

Hi

The move on the EUR/USD continues slowly down.

We didn’t get our perfect entry yesterday but some of you may well have got short on the pivot bounce. Two bars spiked above the DP. But the failure of either to close above DP was a bearish sign and a reversal was likely. It resulted in a sharp move down to 1.2677 for profits.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Eurozone and the IMF can’t agree on providing funding for  Greece  who raised enough funds on the open market to survive a little longer. But the Greeks are now openly talking about the possibility of default… I guess they did that after raising the capital in the morning…So the EUR looks heavy. Meanwhile the US is headed for a Fiscal cliff.. I heard today they were going to negotiate parts of the agreement and then move the Fiscal cliff out another 6 months or so ummm  not making decisions is how we got into this mess… so the USD is also heavy.

Technical Analysis;  We are in nice bearish mode today with Weekly Pivot below Monthly Pivot, a Daily Pivot below weekly. Price is above DP and has retraced towards the top of the weeks range.

The 4H chart is still in downtrend and has retraced nicely. The key number for it is 1.2737 a break of which would create a higher high, and the first warning sign for momentum.

The Day Ahead –   I am bearish overall and it looks like we might get some cleaner opportunities than we have in the last week.

Bias-  Bearish but Cautious.

 NO TRADE:  

BEST Short entry; I like a pullback to DS1 and then enter on beak of the trendline and  a run down to DP….

 BEST Long Entry;  I would like to see an decisive move up, and then a pullback to DR1, a reversal signal and I will trade to weekly pivot.

Other Entries;  I am happy to enter on the beak of DP and trade to 1.2677

RED NEWS Today

1:30pm USD       Core Retail Sales m/m   

1:30pm USD       PPI m/m             

1:30pm USD       Retail Sales m/m             

7:00pm USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

My blog is available at http://www.actionstowealth.com/

US public Holiday

Today is a US public holiday and as such we wont be trading or blogging... i will be back tomorrow.

http://www.actionstowealth.com/blog/

My blog is now available
http://www.actionstowealth.com/blog/

The calm before the calm

Hi
After the big move yesterday  the market behaved largely as we predicted, with the move down hel up by the over extension and no rally following.

Context
More bad news from Spain and questions about Greeces ability to meet its austerity targets kept pressure on the Euro yesterday. All eyes will now be on the US election race and the market is likely to sit quietly until we gte an indication of success.. Any Poll suggesting a Romney victory could see a further push down for EUR/USD.

Technical Analysis;  The pivots remain in bearish order and down looks the most likely direction now DP has come down to meet price.

The Day Ahead –   Really this is a day to watch. We have had a move and are consolidating before a big event and the market is likely to be ranging, or choppy. I will ofer some entries but doubt I will trade at this point.
Bias- Bearish, but cautious

 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; I like a short entry down to 1.2762 and weekly S1, but can’t see the entrance.
 BEST Long Entry;  I would need  to see aggressive buying and then a pullback to support, and a good price action confirmation.

Other Entries;
 RED NEWS Today
8:15am EUR
Spanish Services PMI
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

Watch for over extension after the big moves

Hi

Thursday was another quiet day and while we got a reversal off our resistance area, the reversal pattern was weak and I didn't trade it. We stated in the blog we needed both an aggressive move, a retracement to the level and a strong price action signal, which we didn't get.

Context
NFP on Friday provided for some dollar strength and a decent push down in the EURO. The market will still have those figures, as well as tomorrows’ Presidential race in mind today. Any Poll suggesting a Romney victory could see a further push down for EUR/USD.

The market has broken down and looks weak, but is also well oversold at this point. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis;  We have beautifully aligned bearish pivots but the move down has already come. The market looks oversold and is due a pull-back before it looks any further short. 100 pips from DP is extended on the EUR and 120 is over extension. After the big Move on Friday I am expecting a little support around this level.

The Day Ahead –   We are bearish but extended
Bias- I think the market may stay ranging but we have nice space to trade into if it does move, and I will be watching for such a move. And expect a pull back before any more down.
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade between and Daily Pivot  and Weekly Pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need Pull back to resistance, and then a strong reversal signal short. The previous low would be an obvious point for possible reversal.
 BEST Long Entry;  If we get a high, and then a higher low I will look at a long here.

Other Entries;
 RED NEWS Today
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT