Hi
The move on the EUR/USD continues slowly down.
We didn’t get our perfect entry yesterday but some of you
may well have got short on the pivot bounce. Two bars spiked above the DP. But the
failure of either to close above DP was a bearish sign and a reversal was
likely. It resulted in a sharp move down to 1.2677 for profits.
Context
Overall things remain a mess. The Eurozone and the IMF can’t
agree on providing funding for Greece who raised enough funds on the open market to
survive a little longer. But the Greeks are now openly talking about the
possibility of default… I guess they did that after raising the capital in the
morning…So the EUR looks heavy. Meanwhile the US is headed for a Fiscal cliff..
I heard today they were going to negotiate parts of the agreement and then move
the Fiscal cliff out another 6 months or so ummm not making decisions is how we got into this
mess… so the USD is also heavy.
Technical Analysis; We are in nice bearish mode today with
Weekly Pivot below Monthly Pivot, a Daily Pivot below weekly. Price is above DP
and has retraced towards the top of the weeks range.
The 4H chart is still in downtrend and has retraced nicely.
The key number for it is 1.2737 a break of which would create a higher high,
and the first warning sign for momentum.
The Day Ahead – I
am bearish overall and it looks like we might get some cleaner opportunities
than we have in the last week.
Bias- Bearish but Cautious.
NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; I
like a pullback to DS1 and then enter on beak of the trendline and a run down to DP….
BEST Long Entry; I would like to see an decisive move up, and
then a pullback to DR1, a reversal signal and I will trade to weekly pivot.
Other Entries; I am
happy to enter on the beak of DP and trade to 1.2677
RED NEWS Today
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
1:30pm USD PPI m/m
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email
me at paul@actionstowealth.com
All the best
PBT
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