Good morning/afternoon to you all. I do hope the weekend has
treated you well and you are ready for another week in the markets. It will be
an interesting week with a pause in the selling, a bank holiday Monday, plenty
of news and NFP Friday.
Context
What a messy start to what promises to be a messy week. With
US and European holidays today, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday this is week
looks like it will consolidate, with unexpected news likely to offer some
choppy moves.
I don’t trade US bank holidays and trade NFP week at half
risk so this will be a week where I watch my capital and trade very little. If
you find yourself trading when the professionals aren’t you do need to ask
yourself if you are trading for profit or trading to participate. This isn’t
sport and the elite and the participant traders play in the same pond..
Yesterday's Report - The
EUR/USD started Friday in a sharp move down with many predicting this to
continue. The market did as we suggested and broke its daily pivot before
testing our resistance area heading south. To get an entry off the daily pivot
long you would have had to cut to a shorter timeframe to get a retest. For
those looking for a short the reversal off resistance did give us an
opportunity but I prefer to wait for price to put in a low, then a lower high,
and then took out the low. At this point we have a lower low and a lower high
which offered a low risk trade. We sell the first lower high.
Technical Analysis
The market started with a gap up today. This leaves us with
2 open gaps above price and one below. I cant recall having seen this before
and I expect the market to close one of them pretty quickly. We also have the
weekly pivot moving closer to the daily pivot which opens the way for new
shorts, but the monthly pivot is still showing massively over extended. If we
have a look down it may be early in the week and I would expect the big money
to stay on the sidelines.
Friday saw a break in the pattern of aggressive shorts
followed by slow reversals which may suggest the move down will have a break.
The Day Ahead – I
don’t trade US holidays but for those that do…
Price us currently putting in higher highs and higher lows
and looks to be pushing up.
A long entry today would require a beak of the weekly pivot
and then a retest.
A short could come off the the weekly pivot or a break and
retest of the daily pivot.
Volume will be lite and price action is likely to be
sideways and possibly chopy..
There are very few trend lines or Support and resistance
levels available and I suggest real care. Its a day when afterwards it will
make complete sense, but during the day it might require a lucky guess. I don’t
guess and will be doing other things today.
News Today GMT
There is no news today.
All the best
PLB
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