30 May EUR/USD

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

I have attached another summary of yesterdays trading tip, as the link didn’t work, I hope you find this helpful.

Context

 I guess we now understand why they are called funda (mentals) its because they are mental, and sentiment is stronger than sense. Every time we hear Greece may leave the euro, depreciate and give itself a fighting chance the Euro dips. This despite there leaving would save the European states billions of dollars of aid and help, over many years. The fact other countries enjoy the lower currency the Greeks create for them doesn’t mean it’s in the best interest of Europe to keep bailing them out. I believe the fundamental moves here are backwards. I think its hard to argue against if Greece leave the Euro long term it will rise, if Greece stays in the Euro short is the place to be for some time. That’s why I don’t trade fundaMENTALS … this is a trading trap and the long term targets are you…

Yesterday's Report – 

Yesterday as predicted we tested daily pivot, in a typical cyclic pattern for a short move, and then headed down again. We had the possibility of an S type entrance again as we got a lower high before the accelerated move.

That move short was slightly stronger than expected and broke the support level.  This left us with lower highs and lower lows.

Technical Analysis

WE still have our pivots lined up in perfect bearish order, but they are so over extended with Daily Pivot nearly 700 pips short of monthly pivot its hard to imagine a strong move short. We have one solid resistance trendline but price has some way to go before testing it.

Really we are in the classic, no short entry (Over extended) and No Long Entry (who would trade into that momentum).  Really I can’t see me trading much until Monday but if I do it will be tight price action stuff.

I expect the big money to stay on the sidelines, unless it’s a fundamental based news.

The Day Ahead –

I expect a similar day to yesterday, with the possibility of a retest of DP followed by a reversal short at some point. If I was to trade here I would want to wait for confirmed, professional  entries. When you think you can’t wait any longer, wait for one more confirmation.

My favoured entry is pictured at the bottom, i would need a rally to resistance, then a test of support, folowed by a lower high and a retest of support.

We are looking for chart pattern type entries, and still trading at reduced risk.

Tip of the day

Write a daily brief like this, I write this for me and then publish it for you. It creates clarity in me as to whether I have clarity in my views on the market.

News Today GMT

Tentative	EUR		Italian 10-y Bond Auction				5.66|2.3
3:00pm	USD		Pending Home Sales m/m			0.0%	4.1%
4:30pm	EUR		ECB President Draghi Speaks

All the best