EU "Leaders" summit...time to sit June 28th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was a moral victory but a financial break even for me, we correctly picked the danger areas in the market and stayed out of potential trouble. The market as predicted came to our area and gave us two lower highs, but neither were especially good bars and neither gave us great trades.

Context
The EU ‘Leaders” meeting stats today and this will dominate the market for a couple of days. I expect the market to stay sideways but if something is leaked it might or released it could spike either way quickly and far. It makes trading hard and gambling common but we will discuss how to trade this more latter…
Watch the Italian Bond Auction if the number comes back above 6.5 the market may choose to make a statement to the EU leaders.

Technical Analysis
WE still have our Pivots lined up in bearish order but they are slightly over extended  we are seeing a small pullback at present.
At present on the 4H chart we see a test of our resistance line and a break of this would end our run of lower highs and put a halt to our short bias.

 This when combined with our rising lower trendline could create an ascending triangle and reason to look long.
I think its more likely that the line will hold and we will spend the day between it and DP in a no trade zone for us.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- Danger here, the EU summit will decide direction and we don’t know the outcome. While I don’t trade this way some traders will put a sell below and a buy above the current market range with stops at the other end. This means if news creates a spike either way they will be in the market. While it’s a guess it’s a better guess than the straight gamble some will take. I will sit out here…
Short entry: I normally won’t go short above daily pivot in this type of market, but am watching a set up here as we get a ring high pattern off our resistance level and a possible trade down to DP.

 I will leave it as im not my method and I don’t love the context of the news.  You will again need to see DP broken and then a lower high at or below DP to get short.
Long Entry – If we saw a push up and break of our resistance level I would look for an entry on a retracement. I do expect a retracement and breaking of the level would suggest a stronger move..

News Today GMT
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
Tentative         EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction         6.03|1.4
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 385K 387K

All the best
PBT

Waiting for Quality, and the meeting of the EU 'leaders' 27 June

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Another good day for us yesterday with the pair behaving largely as expected. We got a nice tight entry under daily pivot and another simple winner.

Context
This week the market waits for the EU leaders to once again meet and come up with no meaningful solutions. The EU would be better off if they stayed home and donated the saved costs to Greece. Still the market waits and we may well have to wait with it.

Technical Analysis
WE still have our Pivots lined up in bearish order but they are beginning to look slightly over extended and I expect a small pullback during the day today.  AS long as we keep putting in lower lows and lower highs on the 4 hourly chart I will let the retracements pass and my entries will be short.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- Slightly Short, the key is similar to yesterday, we need to be patient and wait for a lower high at or below DP…For me this our high probability entry
Short entry: I won’t go short above daily pivot in this type of market so I am going to need to see DP broken and then a lower high at or below DP to get short.
Long Entry – If we saw a push up and break of our resistance level I would look for an entry on a retracement. I do expect a retracement and breaking of the level would suggest a stronger move..

News Today GMT
12:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% -0.9%
2:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.2% -5.5%

All the best
PBT

Pivots are lining up, timing is the key June 26th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

I’m sorry we had no blog yesterday; I was late back from holiday.

Context
The market appears to be ignoring recent bad Euro news and waiting. In the last few weeks we have got through the Greek election, Spanish Bank Bailout, G20 Meeting and the Fed statement. Now we wait on the Euro leaders’ summit where the Germans will once again tell the struggling nations the only way out for them is the way that happens to benefit the German Economy the most… Its unlikely that news will do much to help

Technical Analysis
We now have our Pivots lined up in perfect bearish order and I will be looking to get short today. The market appears to have put in a lower high above daily pivot, I will be looking for one at or below DP today.
The 4 hourly chart does offer some balance to this showing a large recent sell off and the high likelihood of a stronger retracement move before we head down.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- Short, the key is finding the right lower high to get into the market.
Short entry: Ideally I would like to see a retest of Daily pivot as a lower high, I will wait for an entry under DP even if there is a retracement.

Long Entry - Despite the fact we might see a retracement, I wont be looking long today.

News Today GMT
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 63.8 64.9

All the best
PLB

Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today. We had our 1000th page view yesterday which feels like great support from you all. Thanks for continuing to read my brief…
Yesterday we saw the market range until the fed announcement and then chop around before settling again.

Context
It seems after bouncing around for a few days price has stopped for a breather. The Fed news was mixed and with not much more big news  due this weeks the market seems to have little idea what next.

Technical Analysis
The daily Pivot has crossed above monthly pivot. Pivot crosses are always worth watching, but with daily pivot stretching away from weekly pivot this one isn’t completely convincing.
On the 4 hourly chart we still have our lower high holding and this level remains important, a break above this would be bullish, and for confirmation of a move down we would like a new lower low. We have a collection of long tail doji bars on the 4 hourly and this confirms the uncertainty in the market. As long as price sits between Monthly and Daily pivot I will be reading and waiting.

 The Day Ahead
Fools rush in where Angels tread to step… Today I will wait and let the market tell me where it wants to go. It doesn’t matter what time I make my money, and im in no hurry in this market…
Bias- Unclear but slightly bearish based on, over extension of daily pivot from weekly, Break of daily pivot, resistance level 1.2740 holding.
Short entry: Would want to see a test of daily pivot, a move down and a bounce of resistance to be confident in direction.
Long Entry -  Would require either a break and bounce long of daily pivot, or a break of resistance.

News Today GMT
7:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.3 45.2
12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 381K 386K
2:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.58M 4.62M
2:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 0.7 -5.8

All the best
PLB

Let the Fed set direction and then we will follow along June 20th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today
Yesterday we saw the market rally up to higher levels than we had expected despite disappointing news out of Germany and terrible news from Spanish bond auctions.

Context
The move up suggests that the market is expecting to see further stimulus from central banks and a positive announcement to that effect from the FED meeting which wraps up today and next week’s ECB meeting. It’s unusual to see this risk on approach so far before the announcement and I suggest caution while this plays out. Fed announcements start from 4.30 this afternoon and I would suggest caution until after them.
Spanish borrowing costs are rising again and they simply can’t afford the cost of debt to keep rising.

Technical Analysis
Pivots remain mixed with daily pivot well to the bullish side and joining monthly pivot. We have our lower low on the 4H chart which I still think is important. Its the first lower low for some time.

 The question is has the market put in the lower high, or is this just a hesitation before we see a push up and a higher high. The situation isn’t clear until we have either the higher high (bullish) or we have a push back up that yields a lower or the same low.
WE are again in the market where its waiting and its unlikely to give us a clear answer until at least the fed statement is made.

The Day Ahead –
I was always having today off and it appears (for once) to be good timing. Let the fed set the direction then we will go along for the ride.
Bias- Unclear and waiting, today the market isn’t talking to us, we need to be patient and wait for the better trading opportunities that will come.
Short entry: Would be possible if daily pivot is broken, and then we see price retest and then continue short. We would be looking for a lower high, with a price action confirmation (High test), and WP as a possible target. WE would as many confirmations as possible, and would wait for a conservative entry.
Long Entry- Would be possible on a bounce off the pivots currently being tested, but entry would need to be a higher low at or above 1.2677 line.

News Today GMT
4:30pm USD FOMC Statement
6:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
6:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference

All the best
PLB

Lower high key confirmation for move down June19th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today

Yesterday was good to us with the preferred break of support and retest of monthly pivot playing out.  At entry we had established lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart and the retest of monthly pivot was a long tail or high test type candle.

We took the filling out of the sandwich and grabbed the easy 1%. Some of you will have let part of the trade run and grabbed a little more.

Context
Today the G20 leaders will still be sending out sound bites where they offer meaningless clichés to a market that’s heard it all before, and knows Greece won’t achieve anything spoken about while its economy is forced to shrink in the face of the austerity measures placed on it. It would be interesting to see if Germany are drawn to play Greece  in the Euro’s if Miss Merkel will require them to play with 3 players to avoid default. It’s all Lose/lose at this stage. One wonders which economy is best placed to benefit from the devalued Euro the Greek Austerity package is guaranteed to bring for years… perhaps I should move on…
Spanish borrowing costs are rising again and it’s going to take some really good news to change the path down.
WE are able to trade this market on our favored 30 minute chart with tight stops and quick initial targets to keep our stays in the markets short and hopefully sweat.

Technical Analysis
It is interesting to note the Euro has gapped up the last two Mondays on good news, yet both days the market has closed the gap and pushed on down. It does suggest there are plenty of people looking to sell into any rally.
The daily pivot is nestled in the middle between the weekly and monthly pivot but importantly today price is below daily pivot.  I am expecting a test and then a move down, either of Daily or monthly pivot. The market feels weak which suggests DP, but monthly pivot has been resistance twice before so might come into play. The move down would give us a lower high to go with our lower low on the 4 hourly chart and confirm direction.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- Short
Short entry- I will be looking for a reversal bar off resistance for an entry today. While my trend line might be a nice take profit point, I think if we get a confirmed lower high today we will be on our way back to 1.2460 and the long term level.
Long Entry- Not favored today and as such i will wait until 1.2680 is taken out and retested.

News Today GMT
9:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 3.8 10.8
12:30pm         USD  Building Permits      0.73M      0.72M
Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings

All the best
PLB

G20 leaks provide added confusion to a difficult day... June 18th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today

Context
The Greeks have voted and we have general confidence a pro bail out Government will be formed. This is positive for the Euro and we have seen a small gap up and will expect the news to bring some buyers to the currency. Unfortunately the picture isn’t quite as clear as that for two reasons. Last week we saw the Euro rally as people squared away short positions, we may see them sell back into those positions during the week. The second reason is we have a swag of major news coming with the G20 meeting this week, a fed statement expected and the EU leaders fight, I mean summit, on the weekend.
The G20 provides particular difficulties today and tomorrow as while the meeting is closed and details are only released at the end of the day, it’s well-known that leaders talk to media during the day and that means unscheduled rumors bouncing the market around.
We are able to trade this market on our favored 30 minute chart with tight stops and quick initial targets to keep our stays in the markets short and hopefully sweat.  I won’t be looking to take any major longer term positions until direction settles. If you would like an opinion I expect to see the Euro lower yet, but I will take my time and find a good entry to trade that position, not rush in and risk spending time in a losing trade.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has re-crossed the weekly pivots and is now sitting between weekly and monthly.  We have seen a gap up on opening and the attempt to close the gap stalled by long term support. As I write this the daily bar is a perfect doji and the market is stalled.

I will watch the two long tale bars on the 4 Hourly chart for direction.  The opposite long tales offer me the extent of the current range and I will be prepared to come into the market only after a break of one of these levels.

I think a confirmed break of the support level will see the closing of the gap and a test of daily pivot.  A break to the top should hit resistance around 1.2815.

The entries are conservative and looking for retests as confirmation of direction as a reflection of the unpredictable nature of the market.

The Day Ahead –
Our trade warning on Friday suggested care in the market until midday today and I still recommend that.  We are under Red news all day with he G20 summit and nearly every trader I know went into the weekend flat. This morning many of them will be returning to the market. We may see some volume and volatility around Uk open and I would suggest staying out until the amateurs have played there game, and we can follow the professionals in. I will also want to see a break of the levels on the 4 hourly chart as confirmation of direction.


 News Today GMT
Day ALL G20 Meetings

All the best
PLB

No Trading today

I am strong believer that as traders in the end its your money, your learning and your decision. I also believe that its important that if we are going to coach, mentor and help you we need to offer our views clearly and responsibly.
So....
In My humble opinion from now until lunchtime Uk on Monday is a time when only experienced, successful traders should be in the market. If you have positions in the market you should consider closing them today, especially on Majors and Minors.
Its indeed possible position sizing for, and the eventual Greek re-elections will bring us nothing of note, but its also possible over the weekend we will see one of the biggest moves in the history of currencies. If this happens everything we know about trading will be different, stops will be slipped and most S and R levels will provide little impact.
I traded through the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the moves and retracements were instant and dramatic, they are potentially nothing compared to this.
If you want to have some fun, trade this on a demo and see what its like...
At this point i need to point out these are solely my opinions and are of a general nature only, you should get specific advise on all matters financial, and no liability is accepted

14th June Daily Brief EUR/USD

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

Yesterday was the first day that the market hasn’t done as we predicted and there is always learning from such events. The first thing we need to understand is the market is always right, we have opinions and it prints the facts. Up was the right direction for the market yesterday. For us, when we are in sinc with the market we can make money and we are not we cannot.  I explained in yesterday’s brief why the market could go up…Big money was buying back some of its shorts, and even how we could trade that… but it’s not what I expected for yesterday so I did my webinar and left the markets in piece. There will be plenty of days when the market will act in accordance with my beliefs on those days I will make a withdrawal from it, yesterday I wasn’t going to make a deposit.

Context
For me there is only one story for the next few days on the euro…No polls are allowed before the Greek re-elections and best guess is we don’t know who will win. The big money wants to reduce risk before the election and the market is heavily short Euro… They need to cash some of that up before the weekend, and that means buying some of their shorts back, but how and when?= MESSY and in reality that this is a market for gamblers, and traders need to sit on the sidelines until Monday.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has re-crossed the weekly pivots and is now sitting between weekly and monthly. The clarity of yesterday’s position is gone and the market is waiting and unsure. On the 4 hourly chart we have a double and nearly triple inside bar set up… inside bars indicate indecision and it’s rare to have more than one. This set up tells us all we need to know about trading right now, the market is unsure and unclear and we need to sit out until clarity returns.  The top and bottom of the bar that leads the inside bars is my first clue on direction today.  Will be watching for a false breakout so instead would like to see a break, retest and continuation from the level.

I notice also that we put in a lower high on the 4 Hourly chart.
We have the triple bottom and trend line around 1.2450 as a support target, and the break of it opens the possibility of a more aggressive push down.

The Day Ahead –
Fundamentals are messy this week, trade carefully. Price might especially bounce around in the buildup to the Greek re- election.
I am expecting a test of support today at 1.2450 and could enter a run down to this by selling the first lower high after the break of the daily pivot.

 If the market goes long ill make a small investment at Starbucks and leave the market to be right without me.

 News Today GMT
12:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
 12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 377K 377K

All the best
PLB

13th June EUR/USD Dailly Breif

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

Yesterday was another good day for us with the market behaving exactly as we expected and staying between our support and resistance levels.

Price poked its head out and tested both sides but no bars closed outside our zone. It was the range trader’s day yesterday and I hope they made the most of it. Trend traders have had a decent time recently. I didn’t trade the range, that’s someone else’s game.
Critically for us, as we also predicted we saw daily pivot slide below weekly.

Context
Terrible news comes pouring out of the Eurozone with the costs of borrowing for Spain and Italy rising, latest house prices in Spain down over 30% from the peak and confirmed to still be falling, and the ECB suggesting the housing market may have another 15% to  go. Cyprus rumored to be asking the Russians for money, and Fitch downgrading more banks…We should be crashing not just dropping but there is one issue, No polls are allowed before the Greek re-elections and best guess is we don’t know who will win. The big money wants to reduce risk before the election and the market is heavily short Euro… The big guys want to cash some of that up before the weekend, and that means buying some of their shorts back, but how and when?= MESSY

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has crossed the weekly pivots and we now have our pivots in perfect bearish order, price is below and testing DP as I write this, a rejection short here and the technical bias is strongly short. The crossing of pivots is a good indicator of direction.

We have the triple bottom and trend line around 1.2450 as a support target, and the break of it opens the possibility of a more aggressive push down.
WE do need to watch for a short covering Rally between now and Friday afternoon. The market is very short Euro and will want to balance that a little before the Greek re-elections.

The Day Ahead –
Fundamentals are messy this week, trade carefully. Price might especially bounce around in the build up to the Greek re- election.
I am expecting a bounce short today off either the daily or weekly pivot with a first move down to support at 1.2450, a bounce and then price to take another run at the level and probably break it. There will be some big money banking profits on their shorts here so if the level goes it may go quickly. The option is to take half your position off and let the remainder run...

 It offers me two short options plus the option to sell the lower high below the support level.
I will be reluctant to go long today and would need price to break resistance at 1.2520 and then retest the level to give me the confidence. I think that’s unlikely today.

 News Today GMT
1:30pm USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.1%
 1:30pm   USD  PPI m/m                -0.6% -0.2%
 1:30pm   USD  Retail Sales m/m         -0.1% 0.1%

All the best
PLB

12th June EUR/USD brief

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

I do hope the blog is helping you with your knowledge and trading. Yesterday was another good day with direction, and I hope you got an entry and made some pips. If there is anything you would like added or removed from the blog, just let me know.

Context
 As the market starts to consider the detail in the bailout of the Spanish Banks, and the growing doubts about he Greek re-elections the market has a decidedly bearish feel to it.

Yesterday's Report 
Yesterday the market did as we predicted and closed the gap. There were plenty of lower highs to sell and this was an easy day to trade.

Technical Analysis
Today the market has come down and retested the previous low, creating a triple bottom of this level and our trend line. This level just below 1.2450 now stands as strong support and a place where bulls will try and hold any runs down. This does mean if the level breaks we will be looking at 1.2408 and 1.2280 pretty quickly.

Our pivots are still mixed and I expect that to hold any move down today, but if we have a selling day today, tomorrow will see the pivots lined up in bearish mode.

The Day Ahead –
Fundamentals are messy this week, trade carefully. Price might especially bounce around on predictions of the Greek re- election.

My feeling is with the market having tested weekly pivot might sit in between that and the recent low of 1.2450. I don’t feel like we have any reason to favor a direction, we have hard support below, and weekly pivot and recent Support and resistance 1.2515 above. While price sits in this zone I will rest and enjoy yesterday’s profits. Knowing when not to trade and when not to give yesterdays profits back is a key skill of a trader.

If price breaks out of the range i will to take a similar entry to yesterday, wait for a pull back to get a good price. My intuition is tomorrow might be the better day

NO News Today GMT

All the best
PLB

11th June EUR/USD Daily Brief

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

Context
 The EU’s broad agreement to bailout Spanish banks has seen the market Gap up on opening and the sit and wait. The fundamentalists have to many conflicting stories, with the bail out and lingering concerns over this weekend’s Greek elections leading the way.

Yesterday's Report
Friday the market broke our trend line and went to daily support as predicted, it tested the level for some time before bouncing away. Those that follow this blog should have had another good day.

Technical Analysis
The market has opened with a gap, and while it still has a couple of open gaps above, it doesn’t like leaving gaps open. I expect to see this gap below closed in the short term. Weekly pivot is below Monthly pivot indicating the long term move down, and daily pivot above weekly pivot to reflect the shorter term rally.

The Day Ahead –
Fundamentals are messy this week, trade carefully. Price might especially bounce around on predictions of the greek election.

I expect that price having tested Monthly pivot and resistance will start and move down towards and possible beyond Daily pivot today. I will be looking to sell a lower high during the day, but will be very careful around the open ok the UK market, when the volume comes to consider the weekends activities.
Break of Monthly pivot, and Resistance with e retest would be my long entry.  I don’t favor the long today so will want to see the retest as confirmation.

NO News Today GMT


All the best
PLB

8th June EUR/USD brief

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

I don’t trade Fridays but here is a brief for you for today….

Context
 With yesterday’s fundamental news providing a whole lot of nothing, the market may start and come back to a more technical basis.

Yesterday's Report 
Yesterday price behaved largely as predicted and after an attempt to test the daily pivot, it floated around in a range..

Technical Analysis
This looks a little more like it to me….
Note that our channel has been broken to the short side for a second time, which makes it redundant.

 A second less steep channel has been established, and generally less steep channels are more reliable.

 But price action hints at a break of the bottom of this channel as well, with consistent lower highs and lows. Note also the speed of the sell off after he early test of Daily Pivot.

The Day Ahead –
I expect to see a solid move down today.
No long options for me today
For the short I would be happy to trade the break out of the channel if I got a chart pattern I liked. The safer option, of course is to wait for the break, and the retracement that gives us our first lower high, at or below the channel line. That would be my play of the day. Target is our support line.

News Today GMT
  1:30pm USD Trade Balance -49.4B -51.8B

All the best
PLB

7th June EUR/USD

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

Context
 After a very choppy day yesterday the market appears to be waiting for Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony today. Rumors suggest that he will signal some form of further easing in the US but I suspect this is an overreaction in the market to the poor NFP figures. Central bankers are far more interested in trends than one of numbers, and with NFP released on the first of the month limiting correlation time, I would suggest the NFP numbers are open to being revised up during the month.
The real wild card today is the Spanish bond auctions on 10 year debt. If that figure comes out high or the bid to cover ratio falls sharpily… the Euro fears will be back, and we will be heading down. I would suggest that with all the attention Captain Bernanke will get, these figures may rule our day.
Notice how since the NFP numbers we have had a clear direction. Captain (I know he’s a chairman, but I like calling him captain) Bernanke’s testimony is similar; it could send the market in a direction for some days, the Spanish Bond Auction figures are more likely to see a quicker more emotional response.

Yesterday's Report
Yesterday was choppy and messy as the market tried to decide on direction amongst conflicting news, and anticipation on Captain Bernanke’s thoughts.

Technical Analysis
The first thing to note is we are in an up-leg, with confirmed higher highs, and higher lows. This is confirmed by the fact the Daily pivot is above the weekly pivot. The existence of both the Weekly and Daily Pivots below the monthly Pivot puts the move in context for us. This is still an up leg in an overall down move.
Price sits almost in the middle between our support and our resistance level, as well as between Weekly and Monthly pivots.

 This is not places price is used to being; it is normally drawn towards or repelled away from such levels. Its position here suggests indecision and range.

The Day Ahead – A DANGEROUS DAY TO TRADE
I expect price to range until Chairman Bernanke speaks (Unless Spanish bond figures come out) , the most likely move for me is, having just put in a higher high, price will come down and test Daily pivot and our trend-line, putting in a higher low.
There will be no long entries for me while the timing of the Spanish announcement is tentative, bad news here could make slippage an issue on exit.
Even a short entry would take my favored S price pattern, price would need to come down and break daily pivot, retest it from below and then take out the previous low before I could consider it. This would need to happen well before we hear from the captain.



News Today GMT
Tentative         EUR   Spanish 10-y Bond Auction         5.74|2.4
1:30pm USD         Unemployment Claims         381K 383K
3:00pm         USD          Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

All the best
PLB

6th June, EUR/USD preview

Welcome back,
I hope you have enjoyed a good break now lets back to making some pips.

Context
 More bad news for the Euro yesterday as the Spanish explained the high cost of borrowing was forcing them out of the credit markets. One official even went as far as to say a rescue of Spain was now technically impossible.  As covered recently this seems the only possible outcome from when the EU negotiated a massive debt write off in the last bail out of Greece. If the EU is going to negotiate debt write offs for one country, who will lend other at risk countries money? Less lenders equals higher rates…. This issue is going to be around for a while and I note Cyprus have started to talk about issues in its banking industry.

Yesterday's Report 
Yesterday after an initial rally we saw a sharp selloff in the market on news from Spain, but latter in the day the market rallied again. I note with interest the daily pivot today rose, so the high, low and close yesterday was higher than the day before despite the selloff.
Technical Analysis
Our pivots are out of line with the daily pivot above the weekly but below the monthly. This of course reflects the shorter term Rally after a longer sell off. The rally will have included short covering, and its peak of 1.2539 is our key number now. If this number remains the lower high on the charts the rally has reversed around the 23.6 Fibonacci level. A retracement as shallow as this would tell us the big guys didn’t cover their shorts and the momentum is firmly down with the low of this move 1.2288 likely to be tested in coming days.
If price should push up and take out the 1.2539 level then for now the rally continues and may push up towards the 1.2600 resistance level.

The Day Ahead –
Price is currently testing our trend-line and I will be looking for a reversal here and a break of nearby the support level of 1.2492. I would then need to see a retracement to give me a lower high, and I would be looking for a price action entry and a trade down to DP and possibly beyond. Note this would mean I am trading the second leg of the move.  This is my preferred option.

On the long side I will be waiting for break of the trend-line, a retest of the support level and then a target of the recent high. The correct price pattern can get me in long again at that level.

News Today GMT
12:45pm  EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
1:30pm EUR           ECB Press Conference

Congratulations to Davide and Geoff who last week made there 1000th pip on the EUR/USD for the year, and all that with losses for the year of well under 100 pips. Great work guys...


All the best
PLB

GBP Holiday

HI,
There will be no EUR/USD blog today or tomorrow as there are GBP public holidays. Much of the forex market volume is done during the GBP session and its dangerous to trade while the volumes down. We will be back to it Wednesday. We trade for profit and not for participation so will return to the market when the conditions favour  us.

WE are also running our free webinar Trader Talk Radio on Wednesday. If you would like an invitation please email me paul@paulbotterill.com and i will send one to you.

Thanks

Paul