14th June Daily Brief EUR/USD

Good morning/afternoon to you all.

Yesterday was the first day that the market hasn’t done as we predicted and there is always learning from such events. The first thing we need to understand is the market is always right, we have opinions and it prints the facts. Up was the right direction for the market yesterday. For us, when we are in sinc with the market we can make money and we are not we cannot.  I explained in yesterday’s brief why the market could go up…Big money was buying back some of its shorts, and even how we could trade that… but it’s not what I expected for yesterday so I did my webinar and left the markets in piece. There will be plenty of days when the market will act in accordance with my beliefs on those days I will make a withdrawal from it, yesterday I wasn’t going to make a deposit.

Context
For me there is only one story for the next few days on the euro…No polls are allowed before the Greek re-elections and best guess is we don’t know who will win. The big money wants to reduce risk before the election and the market is heavily short Euro… They need to cash some of that up before the weekend, and that means buying some of their shorts back, but how and when?= MESSY and in reality that this is a market for gamblers, and traders need to sit on the sidelines until Monday.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has re-crossed the weekly pivots and is now sitting between weekly and monthly. The clarity of yesterday’s position is gone and the market is waiting and unsure. On the 4 hourly chart we have a double and nearly triple inside bar set up… inside bars indicate indecision and it’s rare to have more than one. This set up tells us all we need to know about trading right now, the market is unsure and unclear and we need to sit out until clarity returns.  The top and bottom of the bar that leads the inside bars is my first clue on direction today.  Will be watching for a false breakout so instead would like to see a break, retest and continuation from the level.

I notice also that we put in a lower high on the 4 Hourly chart.
We have the triple bottom and trend line around 1.2450 as a support target, and the break of it opens the possibility of a more aggressive push down.

The Day Ahead –
Fundamentals are messy this week, trade carefully. Price might especially bounce around in the buildup to the Greek re- election.
I am expecting a test of support today at 1.2450 and could enter a run down to this by selling the first lower high after the break of the daily pivot.

 If the market goes long ill make a small investment at Starbucks and leave the market to be right without me.

 News Today GMT
12:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
 12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 377K 377K

All the best
PLB