Lower high key confirmation for move down June19th

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today

Yesterday was good to us with the preferred break of support and retest of monthly pivot playing out.  At entry we had established lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart and the retest of monthly pivot was a long tail or high test type candle.

We took the filling out of the sandwich and grabbed the easy 1%. Some of you will have let part of the trade run and grabbed a little more.

Context
Today the G20 leaders will still be sending out sound bites where they offer meaningless clichés to a market that’s heard it all before, and knows Greece won’t achieve anything spoken about while its economy is forced to shrink in the face of the austerity measures placed on it. It would be interesting to see if Germany are drawn to play Greece  in the Euro’s if Miss Merkel will require them to play with 3 players to avoid default. It’s all Lose/lose at this stage. One wonders which economy is best placed to benefit from the devalued Euro the Greek Austerity package is guaranteed to bring for years… perhaps I should move on…
Spanish borrowing costs are rising again and it’s going to take some really good news to change the path down.
WE are able to trade this market on our favored 30 minute chart with tight stops and quick initial targets to keep our stays in the markets short and hopefully sweat.

Technical Analysis
It is interesting to note the Euro has gapped up the last two Mondays on good news, yet both days the market has closed the gap and pushed on down. It does suggest there are plenty of people looking to sell into any rally.
The daily pivot is nestled in the middle between the weekly and monthly pivot but importantly today price is below daily pivot.  I am expecting a test and then a move down, either of Daily or monthly pivot. The market feels weak which suggests DP, but monthly pivot has been resistance twice before so might come into play. The move down would give us a lower high to go with our lower low on the 4 hourly chart and confirm direction.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- Short
Short entry- I will be looking for a reversal bar off resistance for an entry today. While my trend line might be a nice take profit point, I think if we get a confirmed lower high today we will be on our way back to 1.2460 and the long term level.
Long Entry- Not favored today and as such i will wait until 1.2680 is taken out and retested.

News Today GMT
9:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 3.8 10.8
12:30pm         USD  Building Permits      0.73M      0.72M
Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings

All the best
PLB