Pivot party likely to signal consolidation, but a break out has plenty of room for profit

Hi
Yesterday was a difficult day for us and some of you may have taken a losing trade… Price broke the range down within minutes of us posting so hopefully many of you missed it. The break down never made DP and instead reversed and headed for new highs.  It’s a nice strategy with a good success rate and I will trade it again next time. The loser is inevitable.

Context
Its NFP tomorrow and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis;
The new month starts with a pivot part as monthly snuggles up next to weekly pivot… basically saying the average price for the last week and the last month are the same.. or that price has been going nowhere. We have done pretty well in a range like this. Then Daily pivot sits only a few pips above. The pivots will act like a magnet and with DP sitting nearly in the middle between support and resistance this market looks dead. It has returned to yesterday’s range and I think it will take news to move it from here before NFP.

The Day Ahead –  
We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias. If we get a move we need a good quality entrance on a day like today. It’s a bit to ask for but if we get it, there could be a good reward risk ratio to take advantage of.
Bias- I think the market may stay ranging but we have nice space to trade into if it does move, and I will be watching for such a move.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between and Daily Pivot 1.2951 (our recent low).
BEST Short entry; I need an aggressive sell and a break of 1.2950 and then a pull back to resistance, followed by a GOOD price action reversal.  I will be targeting DS1 to take most of, and will leave a little on for a return to 1.2908.
 BEST Long Entry;  I am looking for aggressive buying through the DP, a reversal to support and a good price action entry. I will be targeting DR1 but will leave a bit on for yesterday’s high.

Other Entries;

 RED NEWS Today
French and Italian Holidays
12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

It is to simpler trade for most to take, i just like the money

Hi
Yesterday will have provided many of yo with another winning trade. I didn't take the trade myself as with price reversing without the support level I had chosen I wanted a better reversal pattern. I am okay with either a strong level, or a great pattern but when I have neither I tend to keep my money. An inside bar, low test, train tracks etc would have put me in the trade, but the slow and lazy turn left me waiting. Well done to those of you who profited again, and for the rest of us today might bring us another chance.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.

Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has pushed up and trapped Price between it and weekly pivot, creating us an easy no trade zone. Its again a mixed picture with the Daily Pivot between the weekly and monthly, and also nearly in the middle between 1.2908 and weekly pivot. Price is sideways and we already look a bit rangy.
The 4H chart has put in a quadruple bottom and now a higher high, with a break of it down trend-line. If it puts in a higher low our momentum turns long.

The Day Ahead –   We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between Weekly Pivot  and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; We know that Euro tests daily pivot a high percentage of the time. If we get a break of this range short I will be able to get a 1-2-1 trade short to DP. Its to simpler trade for most people but its a high probability trade. While it will lose occasionally it will generally add 1% to my account.

 BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would Like to see a break of W Pivot and a run to yesterdays high then a retrenchment to a weekly pivot and a reversal pattern long. The first take profit would be DR1, with a little left on for 1.3033.
Other Entries;  A break of D Pivot with a run and then a retrenchment to DP, a reversal pattern short.

 NO RED NEWS Today

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

US Storm hints at Calm markets... but

Hi
Yesterday was another good day for us with an understanding of price action keeping us out of the mud that was the day. After we blogged yesterday the range of price was less than 40 pips and its near impossible to make money on such ranges. The market looked both ways and will have fooled some traders in but by staying safe while price was in our no trade zone we survived capital intact.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
We normally don’t trade on US public holidays and while there is no holiday today much of The US is closed. This will reduce volumes and volatility and hints at a quiet day. It will be interested to see if latter in the day someone uses the quiet to push a direction....
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.

Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has snuggled up to the often used 1.2908 level and will be a magnet for price today. Daily is now about the middle between MP and WP this and the tightness to a major level suggest a small range day.
The 4H chart is bearish but the 1.2885 level is providing stubborn support and could be the key level of the day again today.

The Day Ahead –   Light volume is likely, and therefore we risk choppy price action.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between 1.2885 and Daily pivot.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see price take out Fridays low of 1.2880 and then retest. My target would be monthly pivot, which is also the WS1 and DS 2 level. A break of this short opens up a big move down, I may be prepared to enter again on the break of MP.

BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would first need to see some aggressive buying and then a pullback to a support level such as 1.2921.
Other Entries;

RED NEWS Today

9.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

NFP will weigh heavily on markets after last months surprise numbers

Hi

Thursday saw a fantastic winning trade for those that were patient, with the break of the Triangle short, a possible entry and those that waited for the break and retest of the Daily Pivot doing especially well. We should have got a tight stop and a 2-1 return down to 1,2908. Looking back it looks like such an easy trade and yet it really did take some patience and belief to get the entries.

Context

Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections. We also need to watch for the effects of the ubba storm rolling into the states.

The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels for the Spanish. The 25 % unemployment level is Spain is hard to believe or really comprehend. Its along way back for the EURO. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.



Technical Analysis
The daily pivot sits below weekly and above monthly and for me this means a slightly bearish flavour, to a mixed outlook. The main level today is once again 1.2908 and as long as we are below it I am bearish.

The Day Ahead –  It’s a Monday morning we need to let the big money come in and provide our direction.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between 1.2908 and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see price take out Fridays low of 1.2880 and then retest. My target would be monthly pivot after that I will stay out as price will have reached extension from the daily pivot.

BEST Long Entry; There is a long way to go for me to be long today, we would need a beak of WP, and then a pullback with an entry above, I would target DR1, and possible leave a little on for 1.3033.
Other Entries;

NO RED NEWS Today
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

The return of the Symetrical Triangle

Hi
WE got another trade entry yesterday with the aggressive sell off followed by a retracement, and an inside bar to confirm reversal. The trade was potentially about 2.5-1 and well worth the trading. Unfortunately the move down got past 1-1 but then reversed. This is an important signal to us as it created a higher low and we should have exited the trade for a profit or break even at worst. If it had put in a lower low we may more inclined to stick with it.

The higher low turned out to be a reversal signal.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Today we see the return of the symmetrical Triangle an historically common chart shape as we come out of Europe. Breaks of the Triangle will give us our first look at today’s directions.
The daily pivot has dropped and now sits close to the middle between recent support and resistance.
The 4H chart has 6 of the last 7 bars as buyer bars and some retracement is likley.
So with a 4H looking over brought, the daily pivot moving down, and price approaching WP I am a little bearish today.

The Day Ahead –
We will watch for the break of the triangle as an initial confirmation of direction.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; I need to see the Triangle broken to the bottom and then retested… even then I may wait for a test of the DP.
BEST Long Entry; I would like to see a break of the triangle, and even then possibly a break above 1.3033

Other Entries;

RED NEWS Today
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

The mistress or the wife, or will the EUR/USD visit both today

Hi

Congratulation to those who took yesterday’s trade suggestion, you should have banked another winner. We waited for the market to confirm a direction by breaking the weekly pivot, then a retracement and got a nice short order off the inside bar. Our stops would have been about 15 and we should have banked somewhere between 2-4 %. A pretty good return for us for showing some patience.

Context
The market is now falling on concerns of slowing growth, especially some negative numbers out of France.  At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels  for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Today is the battle of magnetism as the EUR/USD has to choose between its wife and its mistress. The Pair test Daily pivot over 70 % of the time and this is especially so when the pivots are close. With Daily and Weekly together the pair will be drawn to the comfort of Pivots. Yet tantalizing below is the 1.2908 level which the pair have found irresistible lately and it would be a brave man who predicted against another visit to the pairs mistress.
The 4H chart still looks a bit over sold and further retracement looks likely.

The Day Ahead –  
I will have a little each way here, If price breaks the recent high I will trade to the pivot… and then look for a reversal back down to 1.2908.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between daily pivot and 1.3030.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see this pullback get to DP and then give me a nice reversal bar.
BEST Long Entry; If price takes out today’s high I will trade it to DP.

Other Entries; Short if we get a sell off and then a retracement, and a reversal bar.
Long I would need to egt above 1.3033 and then extend and retrace, giving me an entry above the level.


RED NEWS Today
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate
12:45pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
3:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
3:00pm USD New Home Sales

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Understanding the context we trade

Hi

Some of you may have taken another trade yesterday, for others the entry will not have been strong enough. We saw aggressive buys and then a pullback to just below the daily pivot, at his point we got an reversal off the higher low and entry above DP. We could enter here and got some accelerated buying. Price never quite made the DR1 Level, and will have needed to exit as price fell for a small profit or breakeven.

We had a similar set up latter but would have passed as it came off a LOWER low, with an entry below Daily pivot.

Context
The market is now rising on suggestions localized elections in Spain strengthen the governments mandate to ask for a bailout. Of course at this stage here is no sign of a bailout request coming. We  will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
The tiny move in the daily pivot shows how little the market is moving at the moment. The market looks largely stuck and we need to see a beak of this range to be able to trade. Daily pivot has been tested from a lower high and lower low which gives us just a slightly bearish bias.
The zone between yesterday’s high and weekly pivot, with a support/resistance level and the Daily pivot running through it is to tighter zone for us and we will stay out of it.

The Day Ahead –  
The first thing we need to do as traders is understand the context we are trading, low daily ranges, stationery daily pivots and we need to take a step back from trend trading…. We need to wait and let the market act and follow it. We can’t lead it
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between yesterdays high and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need to see a move down and break of weekly pivot, with a pullback to get an entry. I would most off at DS2. This is my favored trade.

BEST Long Entry; I need to see yesterday’s high broken and tested from above. Even then I would be trading from DR1 to DR2 and I can’t see it getting there without news out of Spain.

 No RED NEWS Today

Watch the presidential debate
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Converging pivots show hesitation in suggestions Spanish Bail out imminent

Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….

After our consecutive winning trades we had a quiet day Wednesday as the market struggled, and I didn’t blog Thursday as I got caught in a business meeting.

Context
The market is now falling on suggestions that Spain may not ask for a bail out until forced too.  It will be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Monday always gives us an interesting pivot picture. Today the pivots ae converging as weekly Pivot has jumped up, and the daily pivot has continued down confirming the longer term bullish tone, and the shorter term momentum down. The battle between last week’s enthusiasm Spain would ask for a bailout shown to be slowly sliding away.
The zone between Daily pivot and weekly pivot, with a support/resistance level running through it is to tigher zone for us and we will stay out of it.

The Day Ahead –  
We need to sit and wait for the market makers to come in and pick a direction here. We need to see some real direction and then a pullback to get in the pips today.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need to see a move down and break of weekly pivot, with a pullback to gte an entry. I would take part off at DS1 and leave the rest for a return to 1.2908.
BEST Long Entry; WE could take the long entry now but it’s a bit early on a Monday morning, I want too see aggressive buying followed by a pullback. I am out at DR1 unless its spiking, in which case I am in until it stops.

 No RED NEWS Today
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Third winner in a row, but watch out for today's trap

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Another winner for those who take our trade suggestions yesterday as we easily broke the ascending triangle, took some profits and 1.3000 and hopefully left some of our position to push up. I expect most of you banked somewhere between 1-4 % in what is becoming a really nice little run.

Context
The market is lifting on suggestions that Spain will ask for a bailout in November and to suggestions the Germans might support some interim support. We have the EU summit tomorrow which is likely to again provide more photo opportunities that breakthroughs but the market will watch it closely as it still watches Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. More supportive news on the Spanish situation could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot remains above weekly pivot and in perfect bullish order, this is normally the perfect long set up but today its a trap for the inexperienced trader. Price currently sits nearly 80 pips above Daily pivot, and solid resistance is only another 20 pips away. The Euro VERY RARELY moves more than 120 pips away from Daily pivot, and if it does so today its likely to be on a news spike.

The 4H chart is bullish with higher high and higher low, but also looks well over extended and due a pullback.

The Day Ahead –  
Everyone will be looking long, but  am expecting a consolidation or pullback. The question is how to make money form such a move…
Bias- Just not sure at the moment
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; While I like an entry short today, I just cant see how to make a good one. I am afraid i while I will watch and look for an entry, but today may be a no trade day for me.
BEST Long Entry.. I am not going to trade long today, but for those that want to; an order above yesterday’s high may take any news move, but is unlikely to be triggered in a consolidation. Its higher risk.

 RED NEWS Today
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

WE are looking a little Bullish but need to bank before 1.3000

Hi

Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Well done to those who took yesterday’s trade suggestion.  It took some time for the aggressive buying to come back and test WP, but when it did it gave us a lovely low test bar and a nice winning trade.  Many will have cashed in but those that are still in it will be up around 3% and enjoying the current price action.

Context
The market continues to wait for the next shock announcement, as it watches Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. Much uncertainty is creating a market with out conviction in direction.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot has crossed weekly pivot in what is always an important sign for us. In addition to this bullish formation we have an ascending Triangle forming on the 30 minute chart.
The 4H chart is unclear with a lower high, and a higher low.

The Day Ahead –  
Today is much the opposite of yesterday, with a short having to follow a bigger move than the long. The short will need to break and Retest WP…. While the long can come on the break of the triangle. WE are looking for a break of the triangle and a move up, we expect it all to happen pretty slowly today.
Bias- Just not sure at the moment
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade the area between daily pivot  and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  An aggressive sell breaking weekly pivot and then retesting WP with a price action reversal.

BEST Long Entry.. We can enter on the break of the triangle, which is aggressive, or wait for price to come back and test the level. The cautious approach makes more sense in a quiet market like this, but its not the one I am considering. If we get in we want to bank some profit before 1.3000.

 RED NEWS Today
 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at Paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

EUR/USD returns to her recent mistress and doesn't look ready to move far

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Well done to those who took Wednesday’s trade recommendation, a nice, simple of slow winner for us. I am sorry about the lack of a blog on Thursday…. I was in a meeting that went well past its expected conclusion.

Context
The market continues to wait for the next shock, as it watches Spain and Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. The higher the bond cost the higher the debt servicing for Spain and the more likely they are to have to ask for a bail out. The strong opinion is that the EUR/USD will rally on such an announcement and I must admit I am not sure why. When the ECB lends members of the ECB money it doesn’t appear to change the European situation to me, even worse when the conditions will kill all hoped of growth in the country. But the market sees it as a positive and we should not stand in the face of the market.

Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD has snuggled back in with its mistress and if it continues to hug 1.2908 much longer and it may in fact have to consider a proposal.  It’s a level the currency has grown increasingly comfortable with and its closeness suggests more range bound days ahead.
Weekly pivot has come down to join Daily pivot and they form a strong magnet for price when they are together. But currently they may not hold as much interest as usual with 1.2908 holding attention.
The 4H chart is unclear with a lower high, and a higher low.

The Day Ahead –  
It’s a Monday morning and as always we want the market to tip its hat and show us direction. I would need to see an aggressive move in either direction to be convinced, I will stay away from a drifting market today.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade the area between 1.2908 and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  An aggressive sell, followed by a pull back and a lower high of a resistance level.
BEST Long Entry.. An aggressive buy that takes out the WP and then pulls back to test it, with a price action trigger.

 RED NEWS Today
 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Will price be able to resist the allure of its previous mistress 1.2908

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is going well

Yesterday saw a continuation of the move down, with the 1.2908 level tested and then broken and price continuing down to Monthly pivot.  We didn’t get the perfect entry as per the blog but I suspect many of you will have profited on the short, we asked for an aggressive sell off and then a retest of weekly pivot and price turned about 15 pips short of weekly pivot. However some of you will have got in on the strength of the sell and then the doji type reversal bar. The price action is a great example of what Isaac Tekeste spoke of on Trader Talk radio where the level is first tested and the likelihood of a break is sign posted by the lower high.  This pulback and go theory is one that Geoff will expand on in future episodes.

Context
The market continues to be fundamentally driven with technical trading more difficult. Both Merkel and Draghi have spoken tough on Greece, and with the market now grudgingly excepting the “Obama” Us Employment figures the market has only had eyes in one direction.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot has crossed the weekly pivot, and all pivot crosses are important, momentum at least is down. Today is the second consecutive day the pivot has moved the same way, it hasn’t got to 3 consecutive days in the last fortnight so today is important. Another move down and some normality might be available to us. The daily Pivot is middle between weekly and monthly and middle is often a sign of indecision. So its all pretty mixed but I like the look of today…
The closeness of Daily pivot and the 1.2908 resistance level will act like a magnet to price. Price has spent more time with the level than the Clintons have spent together in their marriage and another visit looks likely.
The 4H chart is over sold at hints at a pull-back
.
The Day Ahead –  
We have a couple of scenarios today. The first is price goes back to the Daily pivot, we know price tests DP most days and will try and grab a few pips if it does. That’s scenario 1, the other is a break of Monthly pivot and the Euro will be exposed to the short side.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  If we get a test of Daily pivot I will be looking for a price action reversal or a lower high as an entry short.
BEST Long Entry.. A break of the recent highs and WS1 would see me looking for an entry back to Daily Pivot.

Other entries..   If we don’t get a test of DP then when price breaks MP if we are coming from a lower high as we would be now I will enter 5 pips below, with a  stop a bove the last swing high. I will take profit at 1-2-1 and allow some of my trade to ride. This could be a good winner.
If we are coming off a higher high, I will wait for the break and sell the first lower high after the break, below the MP.

 NO RED NEWS Today

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at Paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best

PBT

In need of an aggressive more to confirm direction

Hi

Yesterday saw the market slowly edge down with Holidays in the US and Japan keeping the volume out of the market. today we have seen a pulback and a break of the daily pivot long.

Context
The market continues to be fundamentally driven with technical trading more difficult. Today sees German Chancellor Merkel in Greece discussing the terms of the next aid payment to the ailing country.  Im not sure how this works as she doesn’t appear to be on the ECB but the one likelihood of the meeting is press, and press could once again spike us either way.

Technical Analysis
Its been nearly two trading weeks since we saw the daily pivot move in the same direction for more than two consecutive days. We are choppy, messy range and need to let price start and provide us with answers rather than questions. For me markets are most tradable when they are trending and cycling.. would be nice to see some more of that soon.
The Weekly and Daily pivots have come together nearly exactly between our support and resistance levels. The closer the pivots together the more they work like magnets and price may hang around here for a while.
Despite this closeness the pivots are bullish, especially with the break of Daily pivot, but in honestly im not sold on it. AS the guys on holiday yesterday come back to the market we may see more of yesterday’s selling.
The 4H chart is also slightly bullish

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy…  reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for News from Markel’s visit to Greece today and.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.

I dont love either of the trades today, but the key to either of them is an aggressive move first, if it keeps drifting, we stay out.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.

 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  I would need to see an aggressive selling move, followed by a pull-back to WP, and a price action reversal to trade down to DS1.

BEST Long Entry.. I would need to see agressive buying, followed by a pull back to support and a price action reversal.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
All the best
PBT

US Public Holiday Today

Hi All,

I wont be posting a full Blog today as its a public holiday in the US.

I would however like to mention its looks like a USD strength move has pushed price action in between weekly and daily pivots. The move suggests the markets have decided to accept Fridays NFP figures are valid.

The move is already nearly 90 pips off its highs and with low volumes it could lead to a messy day.

Take care. Trade like its your hard earned money, and i will be back tomorrow...

Dont forget those that want to can join us for Trader Talk radio tomorrow from 7.30am UK. The link is
https://www150.livemeeting.com/cc/communique/join?id=JQNKZ2&role=attend&pw=Botts01
Meeting ID: JQNKZ2
Attendee Entry Code: Botts01


Paul

ECB Minimum bid rate and press conference today

Hi

Yesterday saw a daily range of the EUR/USD of 60 pips. We can make money when price is rising, and we can make money when price is falling, we can even make money when price is ranging if the range is of a decent size. We need a bigger daily range than 60 pips to trade well.

Context
The market is now waiting for ECB minimum bid rate, and especially the tone of the press conference that follows as well as NFP in the US Tomorrow. We still have to watch for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agency Moody’s to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings to junk, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has snuggled in next to our 1.2908 support and resistance line that the market crosses every day. While the pivots remain lined up bullishly the daily pivot has hardly moved for the last 7 days and carries the real message that the market is stalled.
The 4H chart is also mixed.

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for ECB news today and that may start some directional move, we unlikely to see much before the announcement.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  Is very similar to yesterdays, The weekly pivot would need to be broken short, and I would like a retest and price action entry short. However I know that DS1 and the day before yesterdays pivot are at about the same level only 15 pips below WP. These could be strong support, so I need a sell off to take out WP, retest it and then trade down to the level where i take at least part of my profits.

BEST Long Entry.. I would like a pullback to support at 1.2908 and a reversal bar entry, aiming at DR1.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
2:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

All the best
PBT

Can we follow up yesterdays great winner

Hi
Yesterday we followed the pattern of recent weeks with a nice profitable trade putting us ahead early in the week. Most of you should have got 2.5 to 3% on the trade. Let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come. I do like the look of today’s charts for something similar to yesterday.

Context
The market is now waiting for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agency Moody’s to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings to junk, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout. The ECB for the tone of its monthly statement on Thursday, and America for its Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday/ The FED having said QE3 was linked to employment numbers.

Technical Analysis
Our pivots tell us the story again today, the DP has finally pushed above the WP, which is nicely above Monthly pivot. Bullish is our sentiment for today, depite the consistent sell off we can see at the moment.
The 4H chart remains has been bearish, but currently we have higher high, and a higher low so it could be turning.

The Day Ahead –  
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for news and Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.

 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; The weekly pivot is being broken short, and I would like a retest and prce action entry short. However I know that DS1 and yesterdays pivot ae at about the same level only 15 pips below WP. These could be strong support, so I need a sell off to take out this level and come back and test it, or another resistance level to get in..

BEST Long Entry.. Break of daily pivot and im on my way to DR1.

Other entries..

 RED NEWS Today
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
 1:15pm         USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

All the best
PBT

The Market us now waiting...

Hi

Yesterday we didn't get the short entry we were looking for as price climbed before bouncing around the resistance levels as we had suggested it might do. Some days we are better not to trade and, for me, yesterday was one of them

Context
The market is now waiting for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agencies to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout. And America for its Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as the FED said QE3 was linked to employment numbers.

Technical Analysis
Our pivots really tell us the story today, the daily pivot remains lodged between the weekly and monthly pivot and if anything has made a small step down towards the middle between the other two.  Its settled  in an indecisive area. I do note that Daily pivot has dropped, and price is above DP, statistically its likely if DP is tested it will break and run.
The 4H chart remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows, but the latest bars are hardly decisive
.
The Day Ahead –  
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  The area between DP and resistance at 1.2908 is too congested for me and I won’t trade in that area today.
BEST Short entry: I would be prepared to enter on the break of DP, with a tight stop loss and look for a high reward to risk trade. If I got this I would remove part of the trade at MP.

BEST Long Entry.. Price is breaking resistance, and I will look for a pullback to it, or the trendline and a price action reversal long
Other entries..

NO RED NEWS Today

All the best
PBT