Hi
Yesterday will have provided many of yo with another winning trade. I didn't take the trade myself as with price reversing without the support level I had chosen I wanted a better reversal pattern. I am okay with either a strong level, or a great pattern but when I have neither I tend to keep my money. An inside bar, low test, train tracks etc would have put me in the trade, but the slow and lazy turn left me waiting. Well done to those of you who profited again, and for the rest of us today might bring us another chance.
Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.
Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has pushed up and trapped Price between it and weekly pivot, creating us an easy no trade zone. Its again a mixed picture with the Daily Pivot between the weekly and monthly, and also nearly in the middle between 1.2908 and weekly pivot. Price is sideways and we already look a bit rangy.
The 4H chart has put in a quadruple bottom and now a higher high, with a break of it down trend-line. If it puts in a higher low our momentum turns long.
The Day Ahead – We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
NO TRADE: I wont trade between Weekly Pivot and Daily Pivot.
BEST Short entry; We know that Euro tests daily pivot a high percentage of the time. If we get a break of this range short I will be able to get a 1-2-1 trade short to DP. Its to simpler trade for most people but its a high probability trade. While it will lose occasionally it will generally add 1% to my account.
BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would Like to see a break of W Pivot and a run to yesterdays high then a retrenchment to a weekly pivot and a reversal pattern long. The first take profit would be DR1, with a little left on for 1.3033.
Other Entries; A break of D Pivot with a run and then a retrenchment to DP, a reversal pattern short.
NO RED NEWS Today
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT
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