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Monday, 8 October 2012

In need of an aggressive more to confirm direction


Hi

Yesterday saw the market slowly edge down with Holidays in the US and Japan keeping the volume out of the market. today we have seen a pulback and a break of the daily pivot long.

Context
The market continues to be fundamentally driven with technical trading more difficult. Today sees German Chancellor Merkel in Greece discussing the terms of the next aid payment to the ailing country.  Im not sure how this works as she doesn’t appear to be on the ECB but the one likelihood of the meeting is press, and press could once again spike us either way.

Technical Analysis
Its been nearly two trading weeks since we saw the daily pivot move in the same direction for more than two consecutive days. We are choppy, messy range and need to let price start and provide us with answers rather than questions. For me markets are most tradable when they are trending and cycling.. would be nice to see some more of that soon.
The Weekly and Daily pivots have come together nearly exactly between our support and resistance levels. The closer the pivots together the more they work like magnets and price may hang around here for a while.
Despite this closeness the pivots are bullish, especially with the break of Daily pivot, but in honestly im not sold on it. AS the guys on holiday yesterday come back to the market we may see more of yesterday’s selling.
The 4H chart is also slightly bullish

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy…  reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for News from Markel’s visit to Greece today and.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.

I dont love either of the trades today, but the key to either of them is an aggressive move first, if it keeps drifting, we stay out.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.

 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  I would need to see an aggressive selling move, followed by a pull-back to WP, and a price action reversal to trade down to DS1.

BEST Long Entry.. I would need to see agressive buying, followed by a pull back to support and a price action reversal.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
All the best
PBT


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