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Sunday, 14 October 2012

EUR/USD returns to her recent mistress and doesn't look ready to move far


Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Well done to those who took Wednesday’s trade recommendation, a nice, simple of slow winner for us. I am sorry about the lack of a blog on Thursday…. I was in a meeting that went well past its expected conclusion.

Context
The market continues to wait for the next shock, as it watches Spain and Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. The higher the bond cost the higher the debt servicing for Spain and the more likely they are to have to ask for a bail out. The strong opinion is that the EUR/USD will rally on such an announcement and I must admit I am not sure why. When the ECB lends members of the ECB money it doesn’t appear to change the European situation to me, even worse when the conditions will kill all hoped of growth in the country. But the market sees it as a positive and we should not stand in the face of the market.

Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD has snuggled back in with its mistress and if it continues to hug 1.2908 much longer and it may in fact have to consider a proposal.  It’s a level the currency has grown increasingly comfortable with and its closeness suggests more range bound days ahead.
Weekly pivot has come down to join Daily pivot and they form a strong magnet for price when they are together. But currently they may not hold as much interest as usual with 1.2908 holding attention.
The 4H chart is unclear with a lower high, and a higher low.

The Day Ahead –  
It’s a Monday morning and as always we want the market to tip its hat and show us direction. I would need to see an aggressive move in either direction to be convinced, I will stay away from a drifting market today.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade the area between 1.2908 and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  An aggressive sell, followed by a pull back and a lower high of a resistance level.
BEST Long Entry.. An aggressive buy that takes out the WP and then pulls back to test it, with a price action trigger.

 RED NEWS Today
 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT


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