US Storm hints at Calm markets... but

Hi
Yesterday was another good day for us with an understanding of price action keeping us out of the mud that was the day. After we blogged yesterday the range of price was less than 40 pips and its near impossible to make money on such ranges. The market looked both ways and will have fooled some traders in but by staying safe while price was in our no trade zone we survived capital intact.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
We normally don’t trade on US public holidays and while there is no holiday today much of The US is closed. This will reduce volumes and volatility and hints at a quiet day. It will be interested to see if latter in the day someone uses the quiet to push a direction....
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.

Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has snuggled up to the often used 1.2908 level and will be a magnet for price today. Daily is now about the middle between MP and WP this and the tightness to a major level suggest a small range day.
The 4H chart is bearish but the 1.2885 level is providing stubborn support and could be the key level of the day again today.

The Day Ahead –   Light volume is likely, and therefore we risk choppy price action.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between 1.2885 and Daily pivot.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see price take out Fridays low of 1.2880 and then retest. My target would be monthly pivot, which is also the WS1 and DS 2 level. A break of this short opens up a big move down, I may be prepared to enter again on the break of MP.

BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would first need to see some aggressive buying and then a pullback to a support level such as 1.2921.
Other Entries;

RED NEWS Today

9.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT