ECB Minimum bid rate and press conference today

Hi

Yesterday saw a daily range of the EUR/USD of 60 pips. We can make money when price is rising, and we can make money when price is falling, we can even make money when price is ranging if the range is of a decent size. We need a bigger daily range than 60 pips to trade well.

Context
The market is now waiting for ECB minimum bid rate, and especially the tone of the press conference that follows as well as NFP in the US Tomorrow. We still have to watch for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agency Moody’s to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings to junk, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has snuggled in next to our 1.2908 support and resistance line that the market crosses every day. While the pivots remain lined up bullishly the daily pivot has hardly moved for the last 7 days and carries the real message that the market is stalled.
The 4H chart is also mixed.

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for ECB news today and that may start some directional move, we unlikely to see much before the announcement.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  Is very similar to yesterdays, The weekly pivot would need to be broken short, and I would like a retest and price action entry short. However I know that DS1 and the day before yesterdays pivot are at about the same level only 15 pips below WP. These could be strong support, so I need a sell off to take out WP, retest it and then trade down to the level where i take at least part of my profits.

BEST Long Entry.. I would like a pullback to support at 1.2908 and a reversal bar entry, aiming at DR1.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
2:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

All the best
PBT