Pivot party likely to signal consolidation, but a break out has plenty of room for profit

Hi
Yesterday was a difficult day for us and some of you may have taken a losing trade… Price broke the range down within minutes of us posting so hopefully many of you missed it. The break down never made DP and instead reversed and headed for new highs.  It’s a nice strategy with a good success rate and I will trade it again next time. The loser is inevitable.

Context
Its NFP tomorrow and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis;
The new month starts with a pivot part as monthly snuggles up next to weekly pivot… basically saying the average price for the last week and the last month are the same.. or that price has been going nowhere. We have done pretty well in a range like this. Then Daily pivot sits only a few pips above. The pivots will act like a magnet and with DP sitting nearly in the middle between support and resistance this market looks dead. It has returned to yesterday’s range and I think it will take news to move it from here before NFP.

The Day Ahead –  
We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias. If we get a move we need a good quality entrance on a day like today. It’s a bit to ask for but if we get it, there could be a good reward risk ratio to take advantage of.
Bias- I think the market may stay ranging but we have nice space to trade into if it does move, and I will be watching for such a move.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between and Daily Pivot 1.2951 (our recent low).
BEST Short entry; I need an aggressive sell and a break of 1.2950 and then a pull back to resistance, followed by a GOOD price action reversal.  I will be targeting DS1 to take most of, and will leave a little on for a return to 1.2908.
 BEST Long Entry;  I am looking for aggressive buying through the DP, a reversal to support and a good price action entry. I will be targeting DR1 but will leave a bit on for yesterday’s high.

Other Entries;

 RED NEWS Today
French and Italian Holidays
12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT