Another symmetrical Triangle to break, another winner to find

Hi

Its always great when we get winners on consecutive days and yesterdays was a good one. We waited for Price action to confirm a direction by taking out the high and then pulling back, the higher low was a doji type bar followed by a low test and we should have been in. Risk on the trade of under 15 pips and a target of up to 45 should have seen us take 2-3% out of a simple price action trade.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Greek situation may get some form of resolution latter in the week and that may create a lift in the Euro. But even this should be small as we don’t really seem to have a solution that solves anything.  Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for, and America seems to be making only slow progress on the Fiscal Cliff issues.

The market will watch Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement today with interest. How has election victory and job security affected the Fed policies?

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. The stock markets are starting to price in the possibility of problems in the US but the currency markets don’t seem concerned as yet.

Technical Analysis;  Daily pivot remains above weekly pivot even if is between weekly and monthly. Daily pivot has been tested and I am slightly Bullish because of that. Price action conflicts on our time frames with the 30 minute chart looking like a triple top so bearish, but the 4h chart still has higher lows and highs so is Bullish.

So the break of the symmetrical triangle will again be key this morning, a break and close outside the triangle is the first real sign of direction.

The Day Ahead –   It looks lke it could be quiet while we wait for Ben Bernanke to speak this evening.

Bias - Cautious, I will wait, it will tell me

 NO TRADE:  

BEST Short entry; If we get a break below daily pivot and the same move takes out the recent low, a pullback to any resistance I will look for the trade down.

 BEST Long Entry;  A break of the last high (and Weekly R1 level), and a close above the triangle would see be looking to get an entry and target DR1.

For pictures http://www.actionstowealth.com/looking-for-another-break-of-a-symmetrical-triangle-and-another-winner/

Other Entries

RED NEWS Today

All Day	EUR			Eurogroup Meetings
	1:30pm	USD			Building Permits			0.87M	0.89M
	5:15pm	USD			Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Promising start to the week

Hi

Thursday should have seen our readers make a nice profit as the first close above the Weekly Pivot confirmed direction as expected and then gave a lovely step up and a nice 2% or so profit. Its another nice simple trade and I hope many of you got another winner.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Greek situation may get some form of resolution latter in the week and that may create a lift in the Euro. But even this should be small as we don’t really seem to have a solution that solves anything.  Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for, and America seems to be making only slow progress on the Fiscal Cliff issues.

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. The stock markets are starting to price in the possibility of problems in the US but the currency markets don’t seem concerned as yet.

Technical Analysis;  Daily pivot remains above weekly pivot even if both have dropped, this gives me a bullish feel to my thinking. We have come out of the Asian session with a symmetrical Triangle and have just had the top of the triangle broken, at this point price has reacted and put in a double top but as long as price stays above the triangle I am Bullish. A close inside the triangle and I am interested in the trade back to DP.

The Day Ahead –   It’s a Monday we need to be patient and let the big money set us a direction.  Price action will scream a direction here by both taking out the current high and closing above the Triangle (BULLISH) or by taking out the last Low in which case I would be bearish.

On another day I may consider taking the current high test bar down to DP, but on a Monday I would like another confirmation first.

Bias-  Cautious, I will wait, it will tell me

 NO TRADE:  Between Weekly and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; If we get a break below the current low and a pullback to any resistance I will look for the trade down to Daily Pivot.

 BEST Long Entry;  A break of the last high, and a close above the triangle would see be looking to get an entry and target MS1/DR1.

Other Entries;  If I get an aggressive sell down to through Weekly pivot and a pullback, I will look for a reversal and an entry short.

RED NEWS Today

3:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Price action will scream a direction with its next high, and once it does I will be keen to be in

Yesterday we should have profited from our long trade suggestion. We got a nice move up followed by a pull-back to DR1 and a reversal to Weekly pivot. We had two possible entries and depending which we took we will have made between 1 and 1.5% on the trade.

This blog can now be viewed at www.actionstowealth.com

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Eurozone has rioting in the streets as group protest the austerity measures and the damage they are doing to growth and job prospects, and yet I think even the protestors know countries are going to have to find a way to live with in their budgets.

The Greek situation looks at an impasse, Spain still needs a bailout it won’t ask for an America has got a new expression ‘Fiscal Cliff” in our vocabulary and may soon bring the old expression “Damn Shambles” back in to vogue.

All of this means the big money is sitting on the sidelines, its waiting for some certainty and markets are doing little while this happens. All we can do is be patient in the belief that the people who run these countries have proven they can create more Damn shambles than you would expect and the next one will give us a direction to trade.

Technical Analysis;  The pivots are our leaders and they are nicely lined up Bearishly, so I like the shorts. I am aware that my 4h chart currently has a higher high and a higher low and I need to watch this. If we currently put in a lower high, I am in business but if we get a higher high I will look to trade the bullish route and wait for the next lower high.

We have had a bounce off goodish support 1.2677 and have now reached Weekly pivot, we have seen a spike above WP but no close. This looks like the place where we could get the lower high on both the 30m and 4h chats to confirm the next bear run.

The Day Ahead –   Price action will scream a direction with its next high, and once it does I will be keen to be in. I am bearish overall and it looks like we might get some cleaner opportunities than we have in the last week.

Bias-  Bearish but watching price action, waiting for it to scream a direction at me.

 NO TRADE:  Between Weekly and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; If the recent high holds and is a lower high below weekly pivot I am keen to get short. A beak of DP and a pullback to any resistance will see me try and push in. I will watch yesterdays pivot level but target 1.2677.

 BEST Long Entry;  If I get a close above weekly pivot, I will look for the first pullback and go long targeting DR1 and then MS1.

Other Entries;  

RED NEWS Today

1:30pm	USD		Core CPI m/m			0.1%	0.1%
	1:30pm	USD		Unemployment Claims			372K	355K
	3:00pm	USD		Philly Fed Manufacturing Index			1.1	5.7
	6:20pm	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

Pull back provides better looking day

Hi

The move on the EUR/USD continues slowly down.

We didn’t get our perfect entry yesterday but some of you may well have got short on the pivot bounce. Two bars spiked above the DP. But the failure of either to close above DP was a bearish sign and a reversal was likely. It resulted in a sharp move down to 1.2677 for profits.

Context

Overall things remain a mess. The Eurozone and the IMF can’t agree on providing funding for  Greece  who raised enough funds on the open market to survive a little longer. But the Greeks are now openly talking about the possibility of default… I guess they did that after raising the capital in the morning…So the EUR looks heavy. Meanwhile the US is headed for a Fiscal cliff.. I heard today they were going to negotiate parts of the agreement and then move the Fiscal cliff out another 6 months or so ummm  not making decisions is how we got into this mess… so the USD is also heavy.

Technical Analysis;  We are in nice bearish mode today with Weekly Pivot below Monthly Pivot, a Daily Pivot below weekly. Price is above DP and has retraced towards the top of the weeks range.

The 4H chart is still in downtrend and has retraced nicely. The key number for it is 1.2737 a break of which would create a higher high, and the first warning sign for momentum.

The Day Ahead –   I am bearish overall and it looks like we might get some cleaner opportunities than we have in the last week.

Bias-  Bearish but Cautious.

 NO TRADE:  

BEST Short entry; I like a pullback to DS1 and then enter on beak of the trendline and  a run down to DP….

 BEST Long Entry;  I would like to see an decisive move up, and then a pullback to DR1, a reversal signal and I will trade to weekly pivot.

Other Entries;  I am happy to enter on the beak of DP and trade to 1.2677

RED NEWS Today

1:30pm USD       Core Retail Sales m/m   

1:30pm USD       PPI m/m             

1:30pm USD       Retail Sales m/m             

7:00pm USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@actionstowealth.com

All the best

PBT

My blog is available at http://www.actionstowealth.com/

US public Holiday

Today is a US public holiday and as such we wont be trading or blogging... i will be back tomorrow.

http://www.actionstowealth.com/blog/

My blog is now available
http://www.actionstowealth.com/blog/

The calm before the calm

Hi
After the big move yesterday  the market behaved largely as we predicted, with the move down hel up by the over extension and no rally following.

Context
More bad news from Spain and questions about Greeces ability to meet its austerity targets kept pressure on the Euro yesterday. All eyes will now be on the US election race and the market is likely to sit quietly until we gte an indication of success.. Any Poll suggesting a Romney victory could see a further push down for EUR/USD.

Technical Analysis;  The pivots remain in bearish order and down looks the most likely direction now DP has come down to meet price.

The Day Ahead –   Really this is a day to watch. We have had a move and are consolidating before a big event and the market is likely to be ranging, or choppy. I will ofer some entries but doubt I will trade at this point.
Bias- Bearish, but cautious

 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; I like a short entry down to 1.2762 and weekly S1, but can’t see the entrance.
 BEST Long Entry;  I would need  to see aggressive buying and then a pullback to support, and a good price action confirmation.

Other Entries;
 RED NEWS Today
8:15am EUR
Spanish Services PMI
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

Watch for over extension after the big moves

Hi

Thursday was another quiet day and while we got a reversal off our resistance area, the reversal pattern was weak and I didn't trade it. We stated in the blog we needed both an aggressive move, a retracement to the level and a strong price action signal, which we didn't get.

Context
NFP on Friday provided for some dollar strength and a decent push down in the EURO. The market will still have those figures, as well as tomorrows’ Presidential race in mind today. Any Poll suggesting a Romney victory could see a further push down for EUR/USD.

The market has broken down and looks weak, but is also well oversold at this point. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis;  We have beautifully aligned bearish pivots but the move down has already come. The market looks oversold and is due a pull-back before it looks any further short. 100 pips from DP is extended on the EUR and 120 is over extension. After the big Move on Friday I am expecting a little support around this level.

The Day Ahead –   We are bearish but extended
Bias- I think the market may stay ranging but we have nice space to trade into if it does move, and I will be watching for such a move. And expect a pull back before any more down.
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade between and Daily Pivot  and Weekly Pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need Pull back to resistance, and then a strong reversal signal short. The previous low would be an obvious point for possible reversal.
 BEST Long Entry;  If we get a high, and then a higher low I will look at a long here.

Other Entries;
 RED NEWS Today
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Pivot party likely to signal consolidation, but a break out has plenty of room for profit

Hi
Yesterday was a difficult day for us and some of you may have taken a losing trade… Price broke the range down within minutes of us posting so hopefully many of you missed it. The break down never made DP and instead reversed and headed for new highs.  It’s a nice strategy with a good success rate and I will trade it again next time. The loser is inevitable.

Context
Its NFP tomorrow and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis;
The new month starts with a pivot part as monthly snuggles up next to weekly pivot… basically saying the average price for the last week and the last month are the same.. or that price has been going nowhere. We have done pretty well in a range like this. Then Daily pivot sits only a few pips above. The pivots will act like a magnet and with DP sitting nearly in the middle between support and resistance this market looks dead. It has returned to yesterday’s range and I think it will take news to move it from here before NFP.

The Day Ahead –  
We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias. If we get a move we need a good quality entrance on a day like today. It’s a bit to ask for but if we get it, there could be a good reward risk ratio to take advantage of.
Bias- I think the market may stay ranging but we have nice space to trade into if it does move, and I will be watching for such a move.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between and Daily Pivot 1.2951 (our recent low).
BEST Short entry; I need an aggressive sell and a break of 1.2950 and then a pull back to resistance, followed by a GOOD price action reversal.  I will be targeting DS1 to take most of, and will leave a little on for a return to 1.2908.
 BEST Long Entry;  I am looking for aggressive buying through the DP, a reversal to support and a good price action entry. I will be targeting DR1 but will leave a bit on for yesterday’s high.

Other Entries;

 RED NEWS Today
French and Italian Holidays
12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

It is to simpler trade for most to take, i just like the money

Hi
Yesterday will have provided many of yo with another winning trade. I didn't take the trade myself as with price reversing without the support level I had chosen I wanted a better reversal pattern. I am okay with either a strong level, or a great pattern but when I have neither I tend to keep my money. An inside bar, low test, train tracks etc would have put me in the trade, but the slow and lazy turn left me waiting. Well done to those of you who profited again, and for the rest of us today might bring us another chance.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.

Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has pushed up and trapped Price between it and weekly pivot, creating us an easy no trade zone. Its again a mixed picture with the Daily Pivot between the weekly and monthly, and also nearly in the middle between 1.2908 and weekly pivot. Price is sideways and we already look a bit rangy.
The 4H chart has put in a quadruple bottom and now a higher high, with a break of it down trend-line. If it puts in a higher low our momentum turns long.

The Day Ahead –   We are very sideways and looking for a directional move to give us a bias.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between Weekly Pivot  and Daily Pivot.

BEST Short entry; We know that Euro tests daily pivot a high percentage of the time. If we get a break of this range short I will be able to get a 1-2-1 trade short to DP. Its to simpler trade for most people but its a high probability trade. While it will lose occasionally it will generally add 1% to my account.

 BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would Like to see a break of W Pivot and a run to yesterdays high then a retrenchment to a weekly pivot and a reversal pattern long. The first take profit would be DR1, with a little left on for 1.3033.
Other Entries;  A break of D Pivot with a run and then a retrenchment to DP, a reversal pattern short.

 NO RED NEWS Today

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

US Storm hints at Calm markets... but

Hi
Yesterday was another good day for us with an understanding of price action keeping us out of the mud that was the day. After we blogged yesterday the range of price was less than 40 pips and its near impossible to make money on such ranges. The market looked both ways and will have fooled some traders in but by staying safe while price was in our no trade zone we survived capital intact.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger timeframe its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.
We normally don’t trade on US public holidays and while there is no holiday today much of The US is closed. This will reduce volumes and volatility and hints at a quiet day. It will be interested to see if latter in the day someone uses the quiet to push a direction....
Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections.

Technical Analysis; The daily pivot has snuggled up to the often used 1.2908 level and will be a magnet for price today. Daily is now about the middle between MP and WP this and the tightness to a major level suggest a small range day.
The 4H chart is bearish but the 1.2885 level is providing stubborn support and could be the key level of the day again today.

The Day Ahead –   Light volume is likely, and therefore we risk choppy price action.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between 1.2885 and Daily pivot.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see price take out Fridays low of 1.2880 and then retest. My target would be monthly pivot, which is also the WS1 and DS 2 level. A break of this short opens up a big move down, I may be prepared to enter again on the break of MP.

BEST Long Entry; To get in long I would first need to see some aggressive buying and then a pullback to a support level such as 1.2921.
Other Entries;

RED NEWS Today

9.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

NFP will weigh heavily on markets after last months surprise numbers

Hi

Thursday saw a fantastic winning trade for those that were patient, with the break of the Triangle short, a possible entry and those that waited for the break and retest of the Daily Pivot doing especially well. We should have got a tight stop and a 2-1 return down to 1,2908. Looking back it looks like such an easy trade and yet it really did take some patience and belief to get the entries.

Context

Its NFP on Friday and with last month providing some rogue numbers the market will watch carefully for the last figures before US Presidential elections. We also need to watch for the effects of the ubba storm rolling into the states.

The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels for the Spanish. The 25 % unemployment level is Spain is hard to believe or really comprehend. Its along way back for the EURO. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow probably downwards day.



Technical Analysis
The daily pivot sits below weekly and above monthly and for me this means a slightly bearish flavour, to a mixed outlook. The main level today is once again 1.2908 and as long as we are below it I am bearish.

The Day Ahead –  It’s a Monday morning we need to let the big money come in and provide our direction.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between 1.2908 and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see price take out Fridays low of 1.2880 and then retest. My target would be monthly pivot after that I will stay out as price will have reached extension from the daily pivot.

BEST Long Entry; There is a long way to go for me to be long today, we would need a beak of WP, and then a pullback with an entry above, I would target DR1, and possible leave a little on for 1.3033.
Other Entries;

NO RED NEWS Today
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

The return of the Symetrical Triangle

Hi
WE got another trade entry yesterday with the aggressive sell off followed by a retracement, and an inside bar to confirm reversal. The trade was potentially about 2.5-1 and well worth the trading. Unfortunately the move down got past 1-1 but then reversed. This is an important signal to us as it created a higher low and we should have exited the trade for a profit or break even at worst. If it had put in a lower low we may more inclined to stick with it.

The higher low turned out to be a reversal signal.

Context
The market is still bouncing around inside a bigger range. In our time frame its up and down enough to offer some opportunity but on a bigger time frame its really stuck. At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Today we see the return of the symmetrical Triangle an historically common chart shape as we come out of Europe. Breaks of the Triangle will give us our first look at today’s directions.
The daily pivot has dropped and now sits close to the middle between recent support and resistance.
The 4H chart has 6 of the last 7 bars as buyer bars and some retracement is likley.
So with a 4H looking over brought, the daily pivot moving down, and price approaching WP I am a little bearish today.

The Day Ahead –
We will watch for the break of the triangle as an initial confirmation of direction.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; I need to see the Triangle broken to the bottom and then retested… even then I may wait for a test of the DP.
BEST Long Entry; I would like to see a break of the triangle, and even then possibly a break above 1.3033

Other Entries;

RED NEWS Today
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

The mistress or the wife, or will the EUR/USD visit both today

Hi

Congratulation to those who took yesterday’s trade suggestion, you should have banked another winner. We waited for the market to confirm a direction by breaking the weekly pivot, then a retracement and got a nice short order off the inside bar. Our stops would have been about 15 and we should have banked somewhere between 2-4 %. A pretty good return for us for showing some patience.

Context
The market is now falling on concerns of slowing growth, especially some negative numbers out of France.  At this stage there is no sign of the expected bailout request coming from Spain. We will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable levels  for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Today is the battle of magnetism as the EUR/USD has to choose between its wife and its mistress. The Pair test Daily pivot over 70 % of the time and this is especially so when the pivots are close. With Daily and Weekly together the pair will be drawn to the comfort of Pivots. Yet tantalizing below is the 1.2908 level which the pair have found irresistible lately and it would be a brave man who predicted against another visit to the pairs mistress.
The 4H chart still looks a bit over sold and further retracement looks likely.

The Day Ahead –  
I will have a little each way here, If price breaks the recent high I will trade to the pivot… and then look for a reversal back down to 1.2908.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between daily pivot and 1.3030.
BEST Short entry; I would like to see this pullback get to DP and then give me a nice reversal bar.
BEST Long Entry; If price takes out today’s high I will trade it to DP.

Other Entries; Short if we get a sell off and then a retracement, and a reversal bar.
Long I would need to egt above 1.3033 and then extend and retrace, giving me an entry above the level.


RED NEWS Today
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate
12:45pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
3:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
3:00pm USD New Home Sales

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Understanding the context we trade

Hi

Some of you may have taken another trade yesterday, for others the entry will not have been strong enough. We saw aggressive buys and then a pullback to just below the daily pivot, at his point we got an reversal off the higher low and entry above DP. We could enter here and got some accelerated buying. Price never quite made the DR1 Level, and will have needed to exit as price fell for a small profit or breakeven.

We had a similar set up latter but would have passed as it came off a LOWER low, with an entry below Daily pivot.

Context
The market is now rising on suggestions localized elections in Spain strengthen the governments mandate to ask for a bailout. Of course at this stage here is no sign of a bailout request coming. We  will still be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
The tiny move in the daily pivot shows how little the market is moving at the moment. The market looks largely stuck and we need to see a beak of this range to be able to trade. Daily pivot has been tested from a lower high and lower low which gives us just a slightly bearish bias.
The zone between yesterday’s high and weekly pivot, with a support/resistance level and the Daily pivot running through it is to tighter zone for us and we will stay out of it.

The Day Ahead –  
The first thing we need to do as traders is understand the context we are trading, low daily ranges, stationery daily pivots and we need to take a step back from trend trading…. We need to wait and let the market act and follow it. We can’t lead it
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then may spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between yesterdays high and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need to see a move down and break of weekly pivot, with a pullback to get an entry. I would most off at DS2. This is my favored trade.

BEST Long Entry; I need to see yesterday’s high broken and tested from above. Even then I would be trading from DR1 to DR2 and I can’t see it getting there without news out of Spain.

 No RED NEWS Today

Watch the presidential debate
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Converging pivots show hesitation in suggestions Spanish Bail out imminent

Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….

After our consecutive winning trades we had a quiet day Wednesday as the market struggled, and I didn’t blog Thursday as I got caught in a business meeting.

Context
The market is now falling on suggestions that Spain may not ask for a bail out until forced too.  It will be watching Spanish bond pricing and especially the 10 year bonds closely as borrowing costs push towards unsustainable for the Spanish. At any time supportive news on the Spanish bailout could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day probably downwards day.

Technical Analysis
Monday always gives us an interesting pivot picture. Today the pivots ae converging as weekly Pivot has jumped up, and the daily pivot has continued down confirming the longer term bullish tone, and the shorter term momentum down. The battle between last week’s enthusiasm Spain would ask for a bailout shown to be slowly sliding away.
The zone between Daily pivot and weekly pivot, with a support/resistance level running through it is to tigher zone for us and we will stay out of it.

The Day Ahead –  
We need to sit and wait for the market makers to come in and pick a direction here. We need to see some real direction and then a pullback to get in the pips today.
Bias- I think the market will slide down, and then spike up on Spanish bailout or bond news….
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; I need to see a move down and break of weekly pivot, with a pullback to gte an entry. I would take part off at DS1 and leave the rest for a return to 1.2908.
BEST Long Entry; WE could take the long entry now but it’s a bit early on a Monday morning, I want too see aggressive buying followed by a pullback. I am out at DR1 unless its spiking, in which case I am in until it stops.

 No RED NEWS Today
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Third winner in a row, but watch out for today's trap

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Another winner for those who take our trade suggestions yesterday as we easily broke the ascending triangle, took some profits and 1.3000 and hopefully left some of our position to push up. I expect most of you banked somewhere between 1-4 % in what is becoming a really nice little run.

Context
The market is lifting on suggestions that Spain will ask for a bailout in November and to suggestions the Germans might support some interim support. We have the EU summit tomorrow which is likely to again provide more photo opportunities that breakthroughs but the market will watch it closely as it still watches Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. More supportive news on the Spanish situation could spike price otherwise I am expecting a slow day.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot remains above weekly pivot and in perfect bullish order, this is normally the perfect long set up but today its a trap for the inexperienced trader. Price currently sits nearly 80 pips above Daily pivot, and solid resistance is only another 20 pips away. The Euro VERY RARELY moves more than 120 pips away from Daily pivot, and if it does so today its likely to be on a news spike.

The 4H chart is bullish with higher high and higher low, but also looks well over extended and due a pullback.

The Day Ahead –  
Everyone will be looking long, but  am expecting a consolidation or pullback. The question is how to make money form such a move…
Bias- Just not sure at the moment
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry; While I like an entry short today, I just cant see how to make a good one. I am afraid i while I will watch and look for an entry, but today may be a no trade day for me.
BEST Long Entry.. I am not going to trade long today, but for those that want to; an order above yesterday’s high may take any news move, but is unlikely to be triggered in a consolidation. Its higher risk.

 RED NEWS Today
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

WE are looking a little Bullish but need to bank before 1.3000

Hi

Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Well done to those who took yesterday’s trade suggestion.  It took some time for the aggressive buying to come back and test WP, but when it did it gave us a lovely low test bar and a nice winning trade.  Many will have cashed in but those that are still in it will be up around 3% and enjoying the current price action.

Context
The market continues to wait for the next shock announcement, as it watches Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. Much uncertainty is creating a market with out conviction in direction.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot has crossed weekly pivot in what is always an important sign for us. In addition to this bullish formation we have an ascending Triangle forming on the 30 minute chart.
The 4H chart is unclear with a lower high, and a higher low.

The Day Ahead –  
Today is much the opposite of yesterday, with a short having to follow a bigger move than the long. The short will need to break and Retest WP…. While the long can come on the break of the triangle. WE are looking for a break of the triangle and a move up, we expect it all to happen pretty slowly today.
Bias- Just not sure at the moment
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade the area between daily pivot  and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  An aggressive sell breaking weekly pivot and then retesting WP with a price action reversal.

BEST Long Entry.. We can enter on the break of the triangle, which is aggressive, or wait for price to come back and test the level. The cautious approach makes more sense in a quiet market like this, but its not the one I am considering. If we get in we want to bank some profit before 1.3000.

 RED NEWS Today
 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at Paul@paulbotterill.com

All the best
PBT

EUR/USD returns to her recent mistress and doesn't look ready to move far

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is improving….
Well done to those who took Wednesday’s trade recommendation, a nice, simple of slow winner for us. I am sorry about the lack of a blog on Thursday…. I was in a meeting that went well past its expected conclusion.

Context
The market continues to wait for the next shock, as it watches Spain and Greece and especially Spanish bond pricing. The higher the bond cost the higher the debt servicing for Spain and the more likely they are to have to ask for a bail out. The strong opinion is that the EUR/USD will rally on such an announcement and I must admit I am not sure why. When the ECB lends members of the ECB money it doesn’t appear to change the European situation to me, even worse when the conditions will kill all hoped of growth in the country. But the market sees it as a positive and we should not stand in the face of the market.

Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD has snuggled back in with its mistress and if it continues to hug 1.2908 much longer and it may in fact have to consider a proposal.  It’s a level the currency has grown increasingly comfortable with and its closeness suggests more range bound days ahead.
Weekly pivot has come down to join Daily pivot and they form a strong magnet for price when they are together. But currently they may not hold as much interest as usual with 1.2908 holding attention.
The 4H chart is unclear with a lower high, and a higher low.

The Day Ahead –  
It’s a Monday morning and as always we want the market to tip its hat and show us direction. I would need to see an aggressive move in either direction to be convinced, I will stay away from a drifting market today.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I won’t trade the area between 1.2908 and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  An aggressive sell, followed by a pull back and a lower high of a resistance level.
BEST Long Entry.. An aggressive buy that takes out the WP and then pulls back to test it, with a price action trigger.

 RED NEWS Today
 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m
If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best
PBT

Will price be able to resist the allure of its previous mistress 1.2908

Hi
Welcome along readers I do hope your trading is going well

Yesterday saw a continuation of the move down, with the 1.2908 level tested and then broken and price continuing down to Monthly pivot.  We didn’t get the perfect entry as per the blog but I suspect many of you will have profited on the short, we asked for an aggressive sell off and then a retest of weekly pivot and price turned about 15 pips short of weekly pivot. However some of you will have got in on the strength of the sell and then the doji type reversal bar. The price action is a great example of what Isaac Tekeste spoke of on Trader Talk radio where the level is first tested and the likelihood of a break is sign posted by the lower high.  This pulback and go theory is one that Geoff will expand on in future episodes.

Context
The market continues to be fundamentally driven with technical trading more difficult. Both Merkel and Draghi have spoken tough on Greece, and with the market now grudgingly excepting the “Obama” Us Employment figures the market has only had eyes in one direction.

Technical Analysis
The Daily Pivot has crossed the weekly pivot, and all pivot crosses are important, momentum at least is down. Today is the second consecutive day the pivot has moved the same way, it hasn’t got to 3 consecutive days in the last fortnight so today is important. Another move down and some normality might be available to us. The daily Pivot is middle between weekly and monthly and middle is often a sign of indecision. So its all pretty mixed but I like the look of today…
The closeness of Daily pivot and the 1.2908 resistance level will act like a magnet to price. Price has spent more time with the level than the Clintons have spent together in their marriage and another visit looks likely.
The 4H chart is over sold at hints at a pull-back
.
The Day Ahead –  
We have a couple of scenarios today. The first is price goes back to the Daily pivot, we know price tests DP most days and will try and grab a few pips if it does. That’s scenario 1, the other is a break of Monthly pivot and the Euro will be exposed to the short side.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry;  If we get a test of Daily pivot I will be looking for a price action reversal or a lower high as an entry short.
BEST Long Entry.. A break of the recent highs and WS1 would see me looking for an entry back to Daily Pivot.

Other entries..   If we don’t get a test of DP then when price breaks MP if we are coming from a lower high as we would be now I will enter 5 pips below, with a  stop a bove the last swing high. I will take profit at 1-2-1 and allow some of my trade to ride. This could be a good winner.
If we are coming off a higher high, I will wait for the break and sell the first lower high after the break, below the MP.

 NO RED NEWS Today

If you have any questions you can submit them here or email me at Paul@paulbotterill.com
All the best

PBT

In need of an aggressive more to confirm direction

Hi

Yesterday saw the market slowly edge down with Holidays in the US and Japan keeping the volume out of the market. today we have seen a pulback and a break of the daily pivot long.

Context
The market continues to be fundamentally driven with technical trading more difficult. Today sees German Chancellor Merkel in Greece discussing the terms of the next aid payment to the ailing country.  Im not sure how this works as she doesn’t appear to be on the ECB but the one likelihood of the meeting is press, and press could once again spike us either way.

Technical Analysis
Its been nearly two trading weeks since we saw the daily pivot move in the same direction for more than two consecutive days. We are choppy, messy range and need to let price start and provide us with answers rather than questions. For me markets are most tradable when they are trending and cycling.. would be nice to see some more of that soon.
The Weekly and Daily pivots have come together nearly exactly between our support and resistance levels. The closer the pivots together the more they work like magnets and price may hang around here for a while.
Despite this closeness the pivots are bullish, especially with the break of Daily pivot, but in honestly im not sold on it. AS the guys on holiday yesterday come back to the market we may see more of yesterday’s selling.
The 4H chart is also slightly bullish

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy…  reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for News from Markel’s visit to Greece today and.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.

I dont love either of the trades today, but the key to either of them is an aggressive move first, if it keeps drifting, we stay out.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.

 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  I would need to see an aggressive selling move, followed by a pull-back to WP, and a price action reversal to trade down to DS1.

BEST Long Entry.. I would need to see agressive buying, followed by a pull back to support and a price action reversal.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
All the best
PBT

US Public Holiday Today

Hi All,

I wont be posting a full Blog today as its a public holiday in the US.

I would however like to mention its looks like a USD strength move has pushed price action in between weekly and daily pivots. The move suggests the markets have decided to accept Fridays NFP figures are valid.

The move is already nearly 90 pips off its highs and with low volumes it could lead to a messy day.

Take care. Trade like its your hard earned money, and i will be back tomorrow...

Dont forget those that want to can join us for Trader Talk radio tomorrow from 7.30am UK. The link is
https://www150.livemeeting.com/cc/communique/join?id=JQNKZ2&role=attend&pw=Botts01
Meeting ID: JQNKZ2
Attendee Entry Code: Botts01


Paul

ECB Minimum bid rate and press conference today

Hi

Yesterday saw a daily range of the EUR/USD of 60 pips. We can make money when price is rising, and we can make money when price is falling, we can even make money when price is ranging if the range is of a decent size. We need a bigger daily range than 60 pips to trade well.

Context
The market is now waiting for ECB minimum bid rate, and especially the tone of the press conference that follows as well as NFP in the US Tomorrow. We still have to watch for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agency Moody’s to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings to junk, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout.

Technical Analysis
The daily pivot has snuggled in next to our 1.2908 support and resistance line that the market crosses every day. While the pivots remain lined up bullishly the daily pivot has hardly moved for the last 7 days and carries the real message that the market is stalled.
The 4H chart is also mixed.

The Day Ahead –
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for ECB news today and that may start some directional move, we unlikely to see much before the announcement.  Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.

BEST Short entry;  Is very similar to yesterdays, The weekly pivot would need to be broken short, and I would like a retest and price action entry short. However I know that DS1 and the day before yesterdays pivot are at about the same level only 15 pips below WP. These could be strong support, so I need a sell off to take out WP, retest it and then trade down to the level where i take at least part of my profits.

BEST Long Entry.. I would like a pullback to support at 1.2908 and a reversal bar entry, aiming at DR1.

Other entries..
 RED NEWS Today
2:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

All the best
PBT

Can we follow up yesterdays great winner

Hi
Yesterday we followed the pattern of recent weeks with a nice profitable trade putting us ahead early in the week. Most of you should have got 2.5 to 3% on the trade. Let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come. I do like the look of today’s charts for something similar to yesterday.

Context
The market is now waiting for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agency Moody’s to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings to junk, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout. The ECB for the tone of its monthly statement on Thursday, and America for its Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday/ The FED having said QE3 was linked to employment numbers.

Technical Analysis
Our pivots tell us the story again today, the DP has finally pushed above the WP, which is nicely above Monthly pivot. Bullish is our sentiment for today, depite the consistent sell off we can see at the moment.
The 4H chart remains has been bearish, but currently we have higher high, and a higher low so it could be turning.

The Day Ahead –  
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer. We are waiting for news and Spanish news is coming so we need to be in and out of the market quickly where possible.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.

 NO TRADE:  I wont trade the area between Daily and Weekly pivot.
BEST Short entry; The weekly pivot is being broken short, and I would like a retest and prce action entry short. However I know that DS1 and yesterdays pivot ae at about the same level only 15 pips below WP. These could be strong support, so I need a sell off to take out this level and come back and test it, or another resistance level to get in..

BEST Long Entry.. Break of daily pivot and im on my way to DR1.

Other entries..

 RED NEWS Today
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
 1:15pm         USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

All the best
PBT

The Market us now waiting...

Hi

Yesterday we didn't get the short entry we were looking for as price climbed before bouncing around the resistance levels as we had suggested it might do. Some days we are better not to trade and, for me, yesterday was one of them

Context
The market is now waiting for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout funds, Credit agencies to see if they will further downgrade Spain’s ratings, which may push Spain to ask for an ECB  bailout. And America for its Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as the FED said QE3 was linked to employment numbers.

Technical Analysis
Our pivots really tell us the story today, the daily pivot remains lodged between the weekly and monthly pivot and if anything has made a small step down towards the middle between the other two.  Its settled  in an indecisive area. I do note that Daily pivot has dropped, and price is above DP, statistically its likely if DP is tested it will break and run.
The 4H chart remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows, but the latest bars are hardly decisive
.
The Day Ahead –  
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  The area between DP and resistance at 1.2908 is too congested for me and I won’t trade in that area today.
BEST Short entry: I would be prepared to enter on the break of DP, with a tight stop loss and look for a high reward to risk trade. If I got this I would remove part of the trade at MP.

BEST Long Entry.. Price is breaking resistance, and I will look for a pullback to it, or the trendline and a price action reversal long
Other entries..

NO RED NEWS Today

All the best
PBT

Its a messy looking day at the start of a choppy looking week

Hi Traders,

We didn’t get an entry on Thursday as choppy conditions continued….

Context
The market is now waiting for news out of Greece on the next payment of its bailout, Spain to see if it will ask for a bailout and America for Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as the FED said QE3 was linked to employment numbers.

Technical Analysis
Our pivots really tell us the story today, it’s a new month and week and we see monthly and Weekly pivots heading in opposite directions. The Monthly pivot is rising showing the current trend is up, the weekly is falling showing the current momentum is down, and the daily sits between them, and between Thursday and Fridays DP’s. Its choppy, messy and uncertain out there right now.
The 4H chart remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows, it does seem to be in phase 2 and looking to find a lower high at this point. .

The Day Ahead –  
Things still look range bound and choppy… It’s a messy looking day, in a messy looking week, reduce your risk and trade with care, or sit out until the picture is clearer.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:  I’m not going long today.
BEST Short entry: I would like to see a sell off below Monthly pivot as a confirmation of direction, then a pullback to resistance and a lower high for a move short.

BEST Long Entry.. I will stay out of the longs today; in the next 70 pips up we need to break daily pivot, weekly pivot, short term support and long term support and no doubt a descending channel. It’s too much danger for me and could make for a very choppy rally.
Other entries..

RED NEWS
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
5:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

All the best
PBT

Spanish Budget, 2 words that go together kind of awkwardly these days

Hi
Those that waited for the pull back yesterday will have been rewarded with at least a small winner, and some may still have a percentage of their trade in the market.  Its okay to hold that position as long as price stays below 1.2895.

Context
The market is now watching Greece and Spain to see how their financial situations will play out. The Spanish budget is today and comes amid rumours of a receding economy, social unrest and rising borrowing costs. The formal request for a bailout does look inevitable. Meanwhile a national strike in Greece serves as a poignant reminder for the Spanish of what the conditions of such bail outs can do to your country. Shambles is the only word that comes to mind and downward pressure stays on the Euro. The slight danger today is price bouncing around during the budget, or some market stunning, unexpected announcement in the budget pushing the Euro up.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot has moved down again and starting to approach over extension type levels at 1500 pips apart. While the set up is bearish the over extension should hold a brake to any move down. That said the fundamental stuff could test that.
Price has just high tested off the 100 ema on the 30 minute chart as it it did two days ago, and its another solid bearish indication.
The 4H chart remains bearish, but he test current test bar is a little short of both support and trendline, and does suggest we have room for a push up to a at least one of them .

The Day Ahead –  
Things could stay very choppy in the build up to and during the Spanish budget. Anything is dangerous when it’s as choppy as this. I am waiting to a break of Daily pivot, once I have price below DP I can again take longs off the table today as the breaking of DP, 1.2895. 1.2908 and the channel will take some major event. At that stage I can trade short, and watch the Spanish budget.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE: I’m not going long today without a break of the descending channel at about 1.2925.
BEST Short entry: Once we get under DP, I will be looking for a pulback and an entry still under DP.

BEST Long Entry.. I will stay out of the longs unless we see a break of the descending channels and a test from above..
Other entries..

RED NEWS
Tentative     EUR    Italian 10-y Bond Auction
1:30pm    USD    Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
1:30pm    USD     Unemployment Claims378K
3:00pm     USD     Pending Home Sales m/m

All the best
PBT

Spanish Budget, Rioting in the streets, looking diwn

Hi
Yesterday’s trade call short only activated in the early hours of this morning after a choppy day yesterday. Many of you will have missed but but for those who did get it, I hope you have locked in some profits and are hanging in for some more.

Context
The market is now watching Greece and Spain to see how their financial situations will play out. Will (when will) Spain ask for a bailout, and will Greece eventually decide to let go of the Euro. The market is nervous and the USD is strengthening a little as a safe haven. Not much has changed from yesterday. The market is waiting on the Spanish Budget and falling as the public riot before it.

Technical Analysis
Daily pivot has moved down and is below weekly pivot so I am a little bearish. We haven’t had a test of DP and with a couple of resistance lines in the way I would think it will take some form of news for us to back up that far.
The major change of the day is the aggressive break of 1.2908 and 1.2895. We have a lot of space down to 1.2677 and we will be looking fir a pullback and a chance to take that ride.
Yesterdays Doji did give us a nice lower high, but we now look ready for a consolidation, or retracement.

The Day Ahead –  
Things could stay very choppy in the build up to the Spanish budget. Anything is dangerous when its as choppy as this.
We have seen a support area broken with a big gap below it. We ae awaiting a pullback and a run short
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but the market is still pretty mixed at the moment.
 NO TRADE:
BEST Short entry: Wait for the bounce long here, then a price action reversal off something and we are in. Take some profit quick, get the stop to break even and leave some on the table for the big move. WE need the pullback to make this a quality trade, it will open up the space to DS2 and over extension.

BEST Long Entry.. I will give the longs a miss today, while they should happen it will be hard to know when. The best long would probably be the retracement here, but I’m not sure how long that will last.
Other entries..


RED NEWS
3:00pm     USD     New Home Sales
All the best
PBT