Its tough today, but the trend line gives us possibilities

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

It was another good day for the blog followers with a winning short and long trade on the same day. The short trade activated soon after we published and made the DP target, many will have taken half at this stage, and moved the stop to break even. So a small win but a nice win.
The long trade was a classic technical trade with a test of DP, followed by a higher high, and an entry on the higher low. Depending on your broker price got to or just missed target, and did flirt with your stop loss. Different brokers may have given different results here.

Context
The Euro is waiting… and will probably continue to drift slowly south while it waits on news tonight.
The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed toady and ECB tomorrow having  it may well chop around on the that first.

Technical Analysis
It’s a new month and Monthly pivot has come screaming down towards Weekly pivot. Unfortunately DP is right in the middle. With the rising DP, and DP above WP, the technical picture is barely positive.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower mini low, and what appears to be a lower high. We really need to see a break of the previous low to be confident here.

The Day Ahead –
What a mess…. Daily pivot right between Monthly and weekly, we have yesterday’s pattern with pivot rising, and price action breaking down through it, but the pivot has already been re-broken. The 4 hour chart is unclear and we have major news today and tomorrow.
I am afraid todays a day to keep our money and do something else. Don’t get me wrong the news may cause a move, but which way is a guess… I don’t guess..
What we do have today is a good trendline, and we can use that for entries.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peak….
NO TRADE:
Short entry: If we get a break below the trendline and a test of the area of confluence where we have both the trend-line, and the DP providing resistance we could look for a price action confirmation short... I would still be at half risk today...

Long Entry: With DP having been tested, you can make a case long on a run up and a pull back to the trend-line and our minor support level. Again i would need a price action trigger and a half risk trade.

 RED News Today GMT
Tue Jul 31
1:15pm     USD     ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 121K 176K
3:00pm     USD     ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.3 49.7
7:15pm     USD     FOMC Statement
All the best
PBT

Looking for an edge in the market today

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Pictures are coming wanted to post as trade may be setting up

Price wandered slowly down yesterday morning before wandering slowly back up in the afternoon. It was a quiet day as the market waits to see if finally there is some substance behind some positive comments on the Euro future.  Comments Wednesday from the FED and Thursday from the ECB are now awaited before Non Farms Friday. We didn’t get an entry yesterday…


Context
Conventional thinking is todays no good as The Euro is waiting… and will probably continue to drift slowly south while it waits on news…
The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed and ECB having announcements latter this week it may well chop around on the that first.

Technical Analysis
Today the pivots might hold a little edge and secret for us. On the face of it very little has changed with DP tucked in above, if a little closer to WP, and both well south of MP. But closer examination shows some interesting stuff.

The following figures are open to some interpretation as markets don’t behave like in text books…  In the last 30 days the Euro has tested DP 24 times, with 11 clear breaks, and 11 clear bounces, and a couple of messes. Those stats will get some further analysis another day. What is unusual is in the breaks only 5 days are like today, where the pivot moved in a direction (down today), and price broke it going the other way (Up Today).  On one of these occasions the breaking bar was an aggressive bar, and price smashed onwards 230 pips… that’s not the same as today. On the other four occasions 100% of the time price reversed through the pivot and took out the previous high/low.
Now 30 days is a crazy small sample (I hate checking this stuff) but it is enough for us to watch it.. and see. Ideally we are looking for a price action reversal, and then find a level of résistance to match.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower mini low, and we will be watching for it to put in a lower high.

The Day Ahead –
Price is drifting but we may have an edge

Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peak….
NO TRADE: I wont enter a trade between Daily and weekly pivot
Short entry: With DP broken, I am looking for a reversal pattern or bar in price action. I will then check hat level for some resistance, if I find it I will trade down to DP, take half my stake of, and move SL to break even…

 I will let the rest ride… If I don’t get the entry I will wait until DP and WP ae broken and I get a lower high.

Long Entry: With DP above WP, we are able to trade long at full risk once we have had a re-test of DP. We are looking for the test of DP, and a Higher high, followed by an entry on a higher low. I would be out at 1.2330 and only able to reenter after 1.2360.

 RED News Today GMT
Tue Jul 31
3:00pm USD     CB Consumer Confidence 61.5 62.0

All the best
PBT

You always feel as if the Euro is only one bad news release away from falling again

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Its another wait and see Monday as we ponder last week’s first real Euro Rally, where we saw sharp buying and a resistance level broken for the first time in a while. The buying was sparked by ECB comments that they would do what was necessary to save the Euro, the market will watch closely this week for signs out of Germany that it will pay those bills.
As day traders we need to watch early in the week for signs of direction.

 Context
The Euro has bounced off little more than a few words by ECB officials, yet unemployment, social unrest, and lack of growth still seem to be bearish factors. To steal a quote you always feel as if the Euro is only one bad news release away from falling again. The market will watch closely this week to see if there is any signs of follow up to the ECB comments, and especially to see iF Germany seems ready to help fund such measures.

The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed and ECB having announcements this week it may well chop around on the news first.

Technical Analysis
The weekly pivot has moved up for the first time in 5 weeks, and the daily pivot has crossed into Bullish territory. This despite both being well below the MP still.
The 4H chart is currently has higher highs and higher lows and for now we need to accept the market momentum is up.

The Day Ahead –
WE need to watch the market early in the session for signs of direction… technically we are long here, but we still need plenty of care.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peak….
NO TRADE: I wont trade between Daily and weekly pivot
Short entry: DP is above weekly pivot, so any short trade would be at ½ risk. I would need to see a break of weekly pivot and then a pullback to it, or below it.
Long Entry: With DP above WP, we are able to trade long at full risk once we have had a test of DP (half risk until then). We are looking for the tets of DP, and a Higher high, followed by an entry on a higher low. I would be out at 1.2330 and only able to reenter after 1.2300.

 RED News Today GMT
 8:00am       EUR     Spanish Flash GDP q/q -        0.4% -0.3%
Tentative     EUR     Italian 10-y Bond Auction   5.82|1.7
All the best
PBT

Was the move up the Bulls, or some Bull from the ECB

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was a great day for us with an expected spike in price coming back and giving us a great pivot test to trade the bounce long.

It is the second day in a row where the DP has been broken, then tested and then provided a profitable entry.  We really should be well up in what has been a tricky week.

 Context
Yesterday’s bounce caught everyone by surprise and it will be interesting to see how long it can last. Really the notion we will set up a bail out mechanism, call it a bank, lend it the money we can’t constitutionally lend to countries , and have it lend it to countries does seem a little like straw grasping for the Bulls. We still have the situation where bad news pours out on the Euro and yet the moves down are measured and we are basically where we started on Monday.
Watch out for ECB President Draghi Speaking this morning. Amy comments about the banking license could cause price to bounce around.

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily about 80 pips below the Weekly pivot and once again buying in the Euro serves little purpose other than to open up better shorting opportunities.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower low and a higher high. Its  a decent approach to wait until we have either a lower low and lower high to go short or the opposite for long. I will however look at some other options here.
With price having tested the DP from above we are now looking for a price action lead. WE need a higher high (with some aggressive buying), followed by a lower high to enter long.

The Day Ahead –
It will be fascinating today to see the rally in the Euro can continue and if so for how much further. The Daily Pivot has been tested which open up the long trades, and has been pulled back towards the weekly which encourages the short option. Today will be about price action and watching the highs and lows.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, more strongly short than it has been.  1.2000 will no doubt provide strong support and I will grab profits before that level. I feel as if at some stage this might just drop.
NO TRADE:
Short entry: If the pivot is broken, I will look for a test of a resistance level (especially the pivot itself) and be I short.
Long Entry: WE have had a test of Daily Pivot which open s up the possibility of trading long to our 1.2174 resistance area. WE first need to see some aggressive buying and a higher high, followed by a pull back. If the initial buying isn’t aggressive I wouldn’t trust the move. We need to remember trading long in the euro requires risk, and we want to be out of the trade reasonably quickly. If price stalls for a bar, try and bank some profit.

 RED News Today GMT
10:30am    EUR     ECB President Draghi Speaks
1:30pm     USD     Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% 0.7%
1:30pm     USD     Unemployment Claims 381K 386K
3:00pm     USD     Pending Home Sales m/m
All the best
PBT

Technical levels slow momentum, but they are a small dam in a big river

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was another good day for us with the break in the pivot all but touching the 1.2040 support level. This level is a fib extension level and perhaps a little advanced to go into here. For those of you who use Extensions I am sure you will find it. I might blog separately about extension levels for targets if time allows. Depending on stop and target it could have brought a 1% loss, but more likely brought another 2% winner for us. We had a second entry with the retest of the DP and a far better profit percentage form this trade.

Context
More bad news pours out on the Euro and yet the moves down are measured. Technical support levels are slowing momentum but the wave of bad news is just building up behind it. Its a small dam in a big river...
I guess this is also due in part to the massive move already gone, over extension a factor again this week, many traders and funds are fully positioned short, and we are around some decent support. Spanish and Italian Bond rates are up, German Cedit ratings and Manufacturing are negative, the Greek PM is predicting a 7% economic contraction, and Spanish regions owe more than small countries. This is out of control and its hard to even see a way out except US QE 3. The countries need to leave the Euro and devalue their currency to become competitive again. If they don’t the market may inflict this on them anyway.

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily about 130 pips below Weekly pivot. In the recent moves UP when Daily pivot has been this far away price has stalled, but with moves down, it’s been different. Extensions of 130, 160, 170 and 240 have seen price continue down. This level of over extension is unusual but it is the market we are in at the moment. It suggests to me a further move down is possible. We do need to be aware that 1.2040 and 1.2000 are obvious areas of Support. It’s unlikely we will see 1.2000 broken and fare welled this week.
The level of extension does also open up the possibility of a move back towards the gap still open from Monday.
The 4H chart is putting in lower lows and lower highs, to confirm momentum is down.

The Day Ahead –
WE have had a test of Daily Pivot ( Yes price hasn’t touched our DP, but with no centralized exchange the DP will be in different places on different charts. If its touched on the Fund charts… its touched as far as the Market movers are concerned, so I will accept within a few pips).
Bias- My overall bias is still short, more strongly short than it has been.  1.2000 will no doubt provide strong support and I will grab profits before that level. I feel as if at some stage this might just drop.
NO TRADE:
Short entry: With the pivot tested I am looking for price to put in a lower High, at or below pivot and I will be back in.
Long Entry: I need to see a break of the DP, and the test of a level from above to get in.

 RED News Today GMT
9:00am   EUR   German Ifo Business Climate   104.8 105.3
3:00pm   USD   New Home Sales                         372K         369K

All the best
PBT

Today fundamentals and technical are back in sync, and the message is simple…SHORT

Hi and welcome the 20th follower of our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was a quiet day for us as we never got a short entry, and the only push up was followed by a lower low. So we didn’t trade and I think that’s a good thing as price went nowhere. In fact as I write this price is nearly exactly where it opened on Monday. This is due to the balance between really bad fundamentals and the early over extension of price from pivot yesterday.

Feel free to join us www.anymeeting.com/tradertalkpbt1 from 7.30 am as we analysis and trade todays session.

Context
The news is all bad on the euro as more Spanish regions start talking of needing bailouts, our telltale bonds are at 7.5% and the Greeks, well there is another shambles. Did the Germans really say no more bailout funds as he Greeks can’t achieve the demands the EU (lead by the Germans) put on them. And this only hours after the Greek leadership called the country in deep depression. I guess the question is why other than over extension we haven’t pushed way further down. I wonder if here is anyone left to sell…

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily about 100 pips below Weekly pivot which is okay. Price is above the DP and looks set for further selling and the push down to around 1.1860.
The 4H chart has back to almost touch its 10 exponential moving average for the first time in 10 bars and is unlikely to find its way above that in this move.

The Day Ahead –
Today fundamentals and technical are back in sync, and the message is simple… SHORT With price at present at the same level as yesterday’s open despite a swag of bad fundamental news, this does look a chance to get into this move….again. The only question is why hasn’t it already moved?
German Manufacturing PMI may be just the thing to start a move short..  a bad number will see an aggressive sell, where it would take an great number to see much buying coming back in.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, more strongly short than it has been.  1.2000 will no doubt provide strong support and I will grab profits before that level.

NO TRADE: 
Short entry: I am prepared to take an aggressive entry short on the break of the pivot. It is very rare for me to offer an entry as aggressive as that here but the day has that kind of look to it to me. We may not see a retest, and even a lower high to enter off maybe well into the move. So i will enter as soon as i'm confident the pivot is broken.
Its still possible we will see a short squeeze up to the previous support level, but if we do I will just watch it and wait for my short entry. It is of course possible we will see none of this.

Long Entry: I wont trade long today unless we get a break of 1.2180 and a retest of that level. Would take some big news to get us there I think.

 RED News Today GMT
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI   45.3 45.0

All the best
PBT

Treat it like a fine wine and let it breath. It will improve for us if we give it a little space and time.

Hi and welcome to a new week, and our EUR/USD brief

The week ended well for us with Thursday’s long trade being possible my favorite trade since I have been writing the blog. Many traders don’t like trend-line trades but the most consistent trader I know trades them regularly and trading’s not about the rubbish you read online but what works in the market. We got a fantastic price action trigger and a really, really nice trade.

I don’t trade Fridays but did suggest on Thursday we would see a big push down Friday or Monday and sure enough it turned up on Friday.
Remember to join us from 7.30am Tuesday for Trader Talk Radio, www.anymeeting.com/tradertalkpbt1.

Context
Friday saw a new recent low as Spanish news and  our telltale Spanish bond rates pushed he Euro down again. The market has once again opened the week with a gap. Gaps used to be a rarity but now most weekends seem to provide one.

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily and Weekly pivot practically overlapping if still over extended from monthly pivot. We have the new gap open and the market will be tipped heavily and straight south. However I see an open Gap, a pivot to test and a triple bottom being untested for Resistance. I expect to see the 1.2160 level tested at least before we push down again. However it’s a Monday morning and rule number 1 for the week is let the market pick a direction. While its short here its extended so we need need to treat it like a fine wine and let it breath. It will improve for us if we give it a little space and time. We don’t try and impose our view on it. Should the market decide to it will run my position over like a river over a pebble.
The 4H chart remains with Lower Lows and lower highs.

The Day Ahead –
I will wait and watch to start, we are some way below the Pivots and I will be happier going back towards them than away until we have tested a level.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I expect a couple more weeks of momentum short.
NO TRADE:
Short entry: My favorite trade here would see a rally to test the Previous triple bottom level and a turn short.

Long Entry: I am prepared to be pretty aggressive looking for an entry here, I will need a push up, a retracement and a price action trigger.

NO RED News Today GMT

All the best
PBT

Some buying continues despite the dovish comments

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was a good day for us with our favored short providing us with a small winner early, and another possible entry soon after. We never really got entries on the other options, Daily and weekly pivots were smashed through and retest entries wouldn’t have been hit.

Context
It seems people are taking it in turns to talk the Euro down with Mr Bernanke being followed, by German leader Angela Merkel, the IMF amongst others having dovish comments on the currency.
This combined with Spanish Bond prices starting to push out again have seen some quick drops in the Euro. Yet each time it drops we see buyers come back in and push it up. The Euro price emains close to where it was 10 days ago

Technical Analysis
We still have a triple bottom at around 1.2170 and as mentioned this has created a decent bounce. Its now a crucial level on any trip down. We also seem to have a little resistance band building around 1.2310. I still have lower highs and higher lows as the range starts to squeeze between these levels.
We still have the daily pivot above the weekly pivot, and both some distance from the monthly pivot. Normally in these conditions we will see Dp start and try and close the gap between itself and MP. The daily pivot has risen for the fourth consecutive day, on the proceeding days price has broken pivot and then bounced back above. I am expecting at least a test of DP today if the trendline is broken.

The Day Ahead –
It’s a strange day with the technical slightly bullish, and the fundamentals a little more bearish for me.
Overall I am slightly bullish for today with the triple bottom, Daily Pivot above Weekly Pivot and over extension from Monthly pivot. However I think we are a crucial stage for the day as price respects our trendline. If the trendline holds its very bullish and if it breaks it (which it is doing as a write this) then a visit to DP is likely.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am enjoying this retracement long as it will provide better and better shorting opportunities in the future. I am slightly Bullish today…
NO TRADE: I think you could argue that we shouldn’t trade inside the Tri-angle… but I will offer some entries
Short entry: My favorite trade here would see a rally to test the trendline from below, and then an entry down to DP.  Similar to yesterday I would be happy to see a break of DP or Weekly pivot, but would want to see the level clearly retested, and a price action trigger such as a high test bar before I could enter.. I still feel cautious short today. I am sure the short is coming but think it might be Friday or Monday when the pivots have reset.

Long Entry: Break and test of the trendline would encourage me long. My concern long at this stage is target with resistance just above 1.2300.

Watch out for Manufacturing news today, this exactly the type of market it can cause a stir.


RED News Today GMT
1:30pm   USD    Unemployment Claims    367K 350K
3:00pm    USD   Existing Home Sales 4.64M 4.55M
3:00pm    USD   Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -7.9 -16.6
 All the best
PBT

Lower high has me nervous on this move and i will need to see a bounce off strong support to get long under 1.2320

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was a frustrating day for us. We got a quick entry into our initial long with a nice low test bar as a price action confirmation, but the market stopped 5 short of our target. I do hope people took profit at some point in the retracement or at least got out at break even.  Never let a decent winner become a loser. After this Captain Bernanke spoke and the market bounced around a fair bit…

Context
Captain Bernanke of the USS wont Commit is speaking again this afternoon and the market is likely to wait to see what the fed chairman says.  I don’t expect the market to react as volatilely as it did yesterday.
The market is had a little bit of a retracement and it will be interesting to see if we get some profit taking today and a continuation up, and if so when the market turns short.

Technical Analysis
WE now have a triple bottom at around 1.2170 and as mentioned this has created a decent bounce. Its now a crucial level on any trip down. We also seem to have a little resistance band building around 1.2310.
The Daily Pivot has crossed the weekly pivot and crossing of pivots is always important. WE have a confirmation here that momentum is up. Daily pivot has risen for the third consecutive day, on the proceeding days price has broken pivot and then bounced back above. I am expecting at least a test of DP today.
The lower high on the 30 minute and 4H charts gives me some concern about this move. I will need a bounce of strong level if I am going to go long below 1.2320.


The Day Ahead –
Overall I am concerned about direction and need the market to give me some confirmation before I can enter.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am enjoying this retracement long as it will provide better and better shorting opportunities in the future.
NO TRADE: Its not a chart area as much as I want to be convinced of direction…
SHORT ENTRY: My favorite trade here would see a rally to a lower high, and then an entry down to DP. I would be happy to see a break of DP or Weekly pivot, but would want to see the level retested before I could enter.. I just feel cautious today.. don’t have exact words for it.. but It’s the fact DP has been broken, and then smashed through the other way last two days… but I need some confirmation  to get short, retest of a strong level is one.

Long Entry: Two long options today. The first is a bounce of DP, and then a pull back to a higher low. I would trade that to 1.2295 target.  The second is a break of 1.2315, I would be happy to trade the first lower high (above the level) long after that. Be aware this is quite over extended so is more likely where a move will end, and only a violent move is likely to push through here today...

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm  USD   Building Permits  0.77M  0.78M
3:00pm  USD   Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

 All the best
PBT

Waiting For Captain Bernanke of the USS Borrowed enough

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief

I would especially like to welcome new viewers, our readership was up 50% yesterday, and I thank whoever is providing referencing us to others. I am sorry to start with a longer then usual blog but its an interesting day….

Monday was a day where our numbers were accurate and some good opportunities arose, but it took patience to get our winner. We started with a break below DP that was too fats for us to get an entry, the move went to our target of 1.2180 and promptly reversed. This happens in trading and you just have to accept it and self-manage your reactions. Price then rallied and broke Daily pivot and came down to retest, it’s been a classic entry for us in the last few weeks but this time was in our NO Trade area. The strength of the buying is something we have discussed and may have got some of you in. Prce then broke weekly pivot and retraced but didn’t give us the retest we would like, the higher low would still have been a tempting and profitable target for some.

Finally we saw out 1.2270 level broken and a retest (down to 1.2265) and our preferred entry offered.  The bar was small an entry at the top with stop loss of 10 (longer than the bar, but to give some breathing space) saw about a 4% profit. Well worth the wait.

Context
Captain Bernanke of the USS Borrowed Enough is speaking this afternoon and the market is likely to wait to see what the fed chairman says.  I expect him to mention QE 3 without committing to it as he tries to keep everyone happy. The market however will bounce around on such a statement.
The retracement continues and it will be interesting to see how long for..
The market is had a little bit of a retracement and it will be interesting to see if we get some profit taking today and a continuation up, and if so when the market turns short.

Technical Analysis
WE now have a triple bottom at around 1.2170 and as mentioned this has created a decent bounce. Its now a crucial level on any trip down.
The Daily Pivot has tucked in close under the weekly pivot, both are well over extended form boig sister monthly.  So the pivots are lined up in bearish order. The closeness of Daily and weekly pivot is likely to pull price in and a test of pivots is likely today.
The thing stands out on the 30 minute chart to me is the higher lows and higher highs (I had heard the Euro could do this but wasn’t sure it was true).  1.2260 is the key here; a move below would give us a lower low and a push down at leas t to DP, where another higher low would be pretty bullish.
The 4H chart shows  the tripple bottom and a higher high so is Bullish for now.

The Day Ahead –
I won’t trade between daily and weekly pivot. This area belongs to the market and will be to choppy for me.  I will wait until it commits to a direction. Then I will jump in and see what I can do
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am however happy to look at longs above Daily pivot, and especially while we have higher LOWS>
It’s possible we will see a continuation of this retracement and hard to predict when we might go short again, but easy to predict it will.
NO TRADE: We are okay to trade anywhere to day
Short entry: A break of 1.2260 would open the way for a short down to DP, we would want to see our normal pull back and lower high to enter. A break of DP would see a similar set up targeting 1.2180. A break of 1.2160 is unlikely to see a retest and would allow for a higher risk, aggressive entry on the break.

Long Entry: Any higher low from here would see an immediate entry targeting 1.2320. If we get a test of pivots, a bounce and then pull back would be our favored long of the day.


RED News Today GMT
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -17.3 16.9
1:30pm  USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
3:00pm  USD  Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

 All the best
PBT

Wait for a break out of the No Trade area

Hi and welcome to a new week for our EUR/USD brief

Thursday saw another set up predicted and another good winner on offer for those hat wanted it. Remember we noted the lower low as the signal short we were looking for.

While I don’t trade or normally Blog on Fridays I put a short piece out advising to watch for the spike long latter in the day. I hope some of you grabbed more pips here.

Context
Italian bond rates have dropped creating a little more confidence in the Euro.
There is not much in news due to help set the direction for the week so we will need to let price action guide us. The next News of any note is when Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow.
The market is had a little bit of a retracement and it will be interesting to see if we get some profit taking today and a continuation up, and if so when the market turns short.

Technical Analysis
The new week sees the pivots lined up in bearish order and while the others are some way from Monthly Pivot, Weekly and Daily are close enough together to open some short side action again.
The 4H chart shows solid support around 1.2165 and this will be a key level for the week. It does look a bit like a double bottom and the possibility of a decent bounce here can’t be ignored

The Day Ahead –
I won’t trade between daily and weekly pivot. This area belongs to the market and will be to choppy for me.  I will wait until it commits to a direction. Then I will jump in and see what I can do
Bias- My overall bias is still short.
It’s possible we will see a continuation of this retracement and hard to predict when we might go short again, but easy to predict it will.
NO TRADE: Between weekly and Daily Pivots
Short entry: Break and then retest of DP, with a lower low.. target 1.2180
Long Entry: Either beak and retest of weekly pivot, with a higher high, followed by a pullback to a higher low, or preferrbaly the same set up on the beak of 1.2270

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% c-0.4%
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.2%

All the best
PBT

Another Friday rolls around

I don't Trade Fridays so no Blog today, but we will be back at it Monday when the pivots will have reset and new opportunities will abound.

Keep an eye out for some position squaring during the day, this may cause a rally as traders will be weary of holding positions over the weekend with all the recent weekend gaps.

I hope you all got the winner yesterday, nice trade and to easy really...

Done a great job this week, i wonder if we can get one more

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was another good day for the Blog as we rolled past our 2000th page view and received a couple of emails from traders who are making some money from following us. More importantly they feel they are learning stuff that is helping in other areas of their trading. I do hope you are seeing similar benefits.
Again I am sorry much of today’s report will be similar to yesterdays but the market is what it is and we just need to accept that.
Also again Yesterday saw a nice opportunity for a small win for those who follow us. We needed to be patient and wait for the first committed sell off. We talked about the break of Daily pivot and then break back short. After that point we saw a couple of good entries short as we entered on the lower highs. Its been a really good effort to take some pips out of the messy last couple of days…

We have done a great job this week, i wonder if we will get another chance

 Context
Well the slow drag continues with new 2 year lows the daily normal at the moment but no real momentum. For me Spanish Bonds remain the key indicator of direction on the Euro. Watch the bond numbers and have the direction, Bonds up, Euro down.
Today looks exactly the same as yesterday with price starting under a dropping daily pivot and working its way back towards DP. The key the last two days has been the lower low on the 30 minute chart confirming time to enter. We will be looking for it again today. Note this on the chart its pretty important re timing….

Technical Analysis
This remains the same as we still have the conflicting picture of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback. The Daily pivot is now a similar distance under weekly, as weekly is under monthly (about 160 pips each) and technically a retracement is due.
On our 4 Hourly chart we do seem to be creating a bit of a bottom.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but with the level off over extension I will want to see a pullback hat gives me a target at the previous low. I am expecting to see a few rallies this week and will be comfortable trading one of these today as we have some distance to resistance. I have no idea who would buy the Euro, and why (other than profit taking) but technically its due.
Short entry: Same as yesterday A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especially, to signal some commitment to direction.  I would especially like to see the Pivot broken and then re-broken short to confirm that direction. Remember we would normally like to see the pivot tested before we go long, but what has just missed on our chart, might have tested on other charts. So while we don't have the test, its close enough we need to be open to the possibility others do.

While i quite like a long today, a break of yesterdays low could see a quick sell off.

Long Entry – I would trade long if I got a lower high above the pivot following an aggressive buy….

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 376K 374K

All the best
PBT

Waiting for the Fed

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was a great day for the blog with record numbers of page views and record numbers also attending Trader Talk Radio. Thanks for the support… I hope it’s helping with your trading. I am sorry much of today’s report will be similar to yesterdays but the market is what it is and we just need to accept that.

Yesterday saw a nice opportunity for a small win for those who follow us. WE needed to be patient and wait for the first committed sell off, and then enter on the lower high as we retested Daily Pivot. There wasn’t a lot in it, but it was the only thing on offer for the day.

Context
Well the EU finance ministers have achieved about what was expected and the market remains unsure of what next. For me Spanish Bonds remain the key indicator of direction on the Euro and yesterdays slight pull back is still well short of a safe area. Watch the bond numbers and have the direction, bonds up, Euro down.
More of the same is likely today with another range bound day possible until later when we get FOMC minutes. The market will wait for the fed statement and may chop around as Bernanke tries to balance the effects. This is a time we may get a sharp directional move so take care during it.

Technical Analysis
This remains the same as we still have  the conflicting picture of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback.
On our 4 Hourly chart price has bounced off a long term trendline and we may see a bigger bounce here. We can look for a reversal of Daily pivot but my feeling is we may see a little more buying than that.


Short entry: A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especially, to signal some commitment to direction.  I would especially like to see the Pivot broken and then re-broken short to confirm hat direction.Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I am expecting to see a few rallies this week..

Long Entry – I would trade long with care but we now have more space to resistance, so its possible again.

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -48.5B -50.1B
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

All the best
PBT

Paint me a clearer picture, and ill come and play...

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today. 


Yesterday was a great day for the blog being our first day with over 100 page views. The popularity of the blog seems to still be growing. Thanks for that.
In the market however it was a quiet day as the Euro rested as we predicted and stayed in a tight range. I am expecting more of the same today and a chance for us to refine the most vital of trading skills. Patience... We must take the easy money and wait out the confusing times, knowing the difference is really our edge.

Context
More of the same is likely today with another range bound day possible. The market has made some big moves recently and has little going on at the moment to push it in either direction. We have an ECOFIN meeting today but it is unlikely to achieve much and expectations are reasonably low. Its hard to see what will push the pair out of the range, and until it does, I slow roll in one direction then the other is likely.


Technical Analysis
WE now have the conflicting pictures of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback.
On our 4 Hourly chart it appears the market has started another leg down, but again this is a very steep move and range or retracement is due.
Each time we go short this month the over extension becomes worse, and the next short harder to trade, and yet short still remains my sentiment.

The Day Ahead –
I am going to stay out today and see if the market will paint me a clearer picture tomorrow so i can come and play. What i would really like is a decent retracement this week, and pivots set up short again next week.  
I can see a good case for both directions today, and most likely the market will range until pushed in one direction or the other. 


Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I am expecting to see a few rallies and most likely a test of WP this week.

Short entry: A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especialy to signal some commitment to direction.

Long Entry – There is no long option for me today. It’s not that I don’t think it will go long, it’s just trading into this is not the high probability trade I like.

NO RED News Today GMT

All the best

PBT

Big Winner last week, no rush today

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Those that followed the Blog on Thursday should have had a big win as we predicted the main turning point south. The poor Spanish bond auction results will have peaked our interest followed by the retest of our long term support line. The reversal bar is not ideal as its to long, but the doji bar type, strength of the new resistance area and Spanish news should have got us into the trade with a stop of about 30, and a target finally hit at 150 pips and a 5% winner. That’s a good month for most traders.

Context
The market has made some big moves recenty. Its hard to remember that just over a week ago it rallied 250 pips with the carnage that then followed Thursday and Friday. We have a shortage of red news this week especially on the Euro and a bullish looking USD. I expect the week will end lower than it starts but today may see a rest day.

Technical Analysis
We now have the pivots lined up in order with Daily Pivot, below weekly pivot, which is below Monthly pivot. However the Daily and weekly pivot are well over extended from the monthly pivot and I expect some form of retracement before we continue the move down.
Even our 4 Hourly chart which appears more bearish than Lewis Hamilton’s championship aspirations, has hit a trend line and appears to be setting up for a phase 2 rally of some kind.

The Day Ahead –
I think the key to today, and probably this week is to wait and pick the right bounce short. I expect either a sharp movement in the first hour of the Uk session, or a few false break outs and a patient approach required.

Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I am expecting o see a few rallies this week and most likely a test of DP today.
Short entry: A break of my trendline, with a retest and a nice chart pattern would see me in short. Or a break, or test of the pivot, a move down and a lower high.

Long Entry – While i am expecting a retracement, there is no long option for me above daily Pivot today today with resistance above at Daily pivot, Weekly pivot, Previous support now resistance and then trend line. Each is about 40 pips from the other and there just isn’t enough space here to interest me counter trend.
I would consider a long below daily pivot, if we get a sell, followed by a move up, and a pull-
back to a higher low, then i would look to trade up to DP.

 RED News Today GMT
1:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

All the best
PBT

News dominates today.... Have we laid the right foundation this week to close it out properly

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was a US public holiday and the market did its normal holiday thing of ranging, then chopping and then ranging some more. A good day to have away as technical traders.

Context
Unfortunately today is all about the fundamentals with a number of big announcements due. Both the ECB and BOE are expected to announce rate cuts, and for me most importantly Spanish 10 year bond yields should be in today. With the rate cuts both are largely priced in and the market is likely to sit and wait for the announcement. If rates are cut as expected then the attention will turn to the accompanying statements and hints in there as to future interest rate moves. These can cause a quick move but at least we know when to expect them. The Spanish Bond results aren’t scheduled so could hit the market at any time. When this is done the market will settle again and wait for NFP tomorrow.  As such our trading needs to have tight stops and a quick TP1 to get risk out of the market quickly today.

The real key to trading today is to have traded with discipline all week. If we have we have banked a nice winner, and given nothing back and we will have no compulsion to get in the market today. If we have missed our trade or given money back its easy to over play your hand here and turn this into a bad week.

Technical Analysis
Even the technical picture is now mixed. We have our daily pivot below monthly pivot and our weekly pivot them both. It’s a bit messy really…. The 4H chart is fairly bearish but even it  appears a bit undecided.
Really this is a mess and we should be thankful for the money we made earlier in the week and watch form the sidelines today and tomorrow.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- My bias is slightly short, although I expect a test of DP at some stage today. The area between support 1.2520 and DP is our no trading zone today and I think we may stay in it until news arrives..

Short entry: If 1.2520 is broken and retested from below, or we get a lower high I could be interested, but probably at reduced risk, and a layered target so I get some money banked quickly.

Long Entry – There is no long option for me today with resistance above at Daily pivot, Monthly pivot, trend line and Weekly pivot. There just isn’t enough space here to interest me.

 RED News Today GMT
 Tentative          EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction   6.04|3.3
 12:45pm         EUR         Minimum Bid Rate 0.75% 1.00%
1:15pm USD         ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 103K 133K
1:30pm EUR   ECB Press Conference
1:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims 385K 386K
3:00pm USD   ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.7

All the best
PBT

Americans are on holiday, i am on holiday

Yesterday was another good day for us with the Euro largely doing as we predicted and staying between daily and monthly pivot, and we stayed out of the choppy range so we could trade another day.

Unfortunately that day won’t be today as the Americans celebrate 4th July. With the holiday in the US the markets will lack a little volume and price action isn’t as technical. So we will join them in having a holiday and wait patiently for tomorrow.

Spanish Bond rates the possible secret key to the Euro, address to get release figures...

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was another good day for us with the Euro, ignoring the popular belief it should rally and instead acting exactly as we predicted.  The lower high that we asked for was formed with  a perfect entry bar, entry below, stop loss above the bar and target the Daily pivot. There is a very easy 2% for those that follow our blog…

After the market paid us it dropped down to monthly pivot and has spent the remaining time between Monthly and Daily pivot.

Context
The Eurozone deal looks anything but confirmed with a couple of countries voicing opposition to it (they must have been playing golf while it was being agreed), and the German Parliament still having a final veto on bailout funds. The market is left with uncertainty and is back waiting. The Bulls and the Bears never really fought it out yesterday and they still appear to be sizing each other up before the big fight. This week sees a US public Holiday Wednesday and then NFP Friday so the hesitation here could easily see the liquidity dry up, and the fight put on hold until NFP provides one side an advantage on Friday afternoon.

In my humble opinion the secret key to trading the Euro is Spanish Bond rates, if rates hold the Euro should hold, but if they start and push up I expect the Euro will quickly start and look down. (Normal Disclaimers apply). A source for Spanish Bond auction results http://www.tesoro.es/en/index.asp

Technical Analysis
Even the technical picture is mixed. We have our pivots in perfect Bullish mode, and looking set for a move up.  But on the 4H chart the recent rally looks a lot like a phase 2 retracement, with our last major high and low, being lower it looks distinctly Bearish. Key levels remain 1.2677 long and 1.2520.

Todays a day for those that can trade price action, and candle patterns. The rest possibly will need to wait this out. One of the big lessons for trend traders is NOT to trade ranges.. We should have made enough money recently that we aren’t drawn into this mess.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- My bias is slightly short, its just an instinct. I will avoid the range between Monthly and Daily pivot, it could be pretty choppy in there. The quality longs here are above 1.2677 and the shorts below 1.2520.
Short entry: The first lower high below monthly pivot.
Long Entry – The first lower high above Daily pivot, will provide a possible entry long.

NO RED News Today GMT

All the best
PBT

When the Bulls fight the Bears, we need to sit at a safe distance 2nd July

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

A critical day for a possible change of sentiment… Todays the Bulls and the Bears will fight out direction for the next few days. If you have ever seen a Bull and Bear fight you will understand we will be well advised to sit and watch form a comfortable distance. Those that get involved may get ripped to pieces….

Friday saw the Euro spike on news that the EU leaders would relax borrowing conditions for Spain. It’s the first really positive move from the Eurozone ‘leaders” and deserves the kind of support we have seen. However in the big picture it still remains the Eurozone pushing the debt around amongst itself, not reducing it all.

Context
My opinion is the Euro rally will be short lived here, and the real effect of the announcement will be to slow the recent decline. However I don’t trade my opinion I trade the market, and I understand how little regard the market has for my position. Given it will run over my position, like Jonah Lomu used to run over Englishmen, I will wait and let it pick a direction and follow behind stealing a few pips here and there.

Technical Analysis
The daily and weekly pivots have become one in a very rare event, and they are tucked in close to the monthly pivot. The pivots grouped closely are quite a strong magnet and I expect to see the Daily and weekly level tested today.
On the 4 H chart I still have lower highs and lower lows in the big picture. These leave me a little bearish and give me some key levels.  If price breaks and hold s above 1.2700 things are a little Bullish, if it gets above 1.2740 we are really bullish.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- I have to wait at least an hour into the UK session before I can trade this market, and really I should probably wait for tomorrow. Its possible every day this week we will see a clearer picture and an easier trading day. Trading on the most unclear and difficult day of the week makes little sense.
Short entry: We have a first lower high on our trading 30 minute chart,  and another lower high would give us a chance to trade down to the pivots. I would still want this to be at least an hour into the London session

Long Entry – There will be a lot of noise about longs in the Euro today but I wont be trading it long. The 1.2740 area that puts in a higher high and confirms a bullish move for me is 130 pips away from daily pivot, which would be over extended. If the market goes long today it is a critical day that sets up a change of bias for me and I will let that set up, and then take my positions tomorrow.

News Today GMT
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.1 53.5

All the best
PBT