Looking for an edge in the market today

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Pictures are coming wanted to post as trade may be setting up

Price wandered slowly down yesterday morning before wandering slowly back up in the afternoon. It was a quiet day as the market waits to see if finally there is some substance behind some positive comments on the Euro future.  Comments Wednesday from the FED and Thursday from the ECB are now awaited before Non Farms Friday. We didn’t get an entry yesterday…


Context
Conventional thinking is todays no good as The Euro is waiting… and will probably continue to drift slowly south while it waits on news…
The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed and ECB having announcements latter this week it may well chop around on the that first.

Technical Analysis
Today the pivots might hold a little edge and secret for us. On the face of it very little has changed with DP tucked in above, if a little closer to WP, and both well south of MP. But closer examination shows some interesting stuff.

The following figures are open to some interpretation as markets don’t behave like in text books…  In the last 30 days the Euro has tested DP 24 times, with 11 clear breaks, and 11 clear bounces, and a couple of messes. Those stats will get some further analysis another day. What is unusual is in the breaks only 5 days are like today, where the pivot moved in a direction (down today), and price broke it going the other way (Up Today).  On one of these occasions the breaking bar was an aggressive bar, and price smashed onwards 230 pips… that’s not the same as today. On the other four occasions 100% of the time price reversed through the pivot and took out the previous high/low.
Now 30 days is a crazy small sample (I hate checking this stuff) but it is enough for us to watch it.. and see. Ideally we are looking for a price action reversal, and then find a level of résistance to match.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower mini low, and we will be watching for it to put in a lower high.

The Day Ahead –
Price is drifting but we may have an edge

Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peak….
NO TRADE: I wont enter a trade between Daily and weekly pivot
Short entry: With DP broken, I am looking for a reversal pattern or bar in price action. I will then check hat level for some resistance, if I find it I will trade down to DP, take half my stake of, and move SL to break even…

 I will let the rest ride… If I don’t get the entry I will wait until DP and WP ae broken and I get a lower high.

Long Entry: With DP above WP, we are able to trade long at full risk once we have had a re-test of DP. We are looking for the test of DP, and a Higher high, followed by an entry on a higher low. I would be out at 1.2330 and only able to reenter after 1.2360.

 RED News Today GMT
Tue Jul 31
3:00pm USD     CB Consumer Confidence 61.5 62.0

All the best
PBT