Today fundamentals and technical are back in sync, and the message is simple…SHORT

Hi and welcome the 20th follower of our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

Yesterday was a quiet day for us as we never got a short entry, and the only push up was followed by a lower low. So we didn’t trade and I think that’s a good thing as price went nowhere. In fact as I write this price is nearly exactly where it opened on Monday. This is due to the balance between really bad fundamentals and the early over extension of price from pivot yesterday.

Feel free to join us www.anymeeting.com/tradertalkpbt1 from 7.30 am as we analysis and trade todays session.

Context
The news is all bad on the euro as more Spanish regions start talking of needing bailouts, our telltale bonds are at 7.5% and the Greeks, well there is another shambles. Did the Germans really say no more bailout funds as he Greeks can’t achieve the demands the EU (lead by the Germans) put on them. And this only hours after the Greek leadership called the country in deep depression. I guess the question is why other than over extension we haven’t pushed way further down. I wonder if here is anyone left to sell…

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily about 100 pips below Weekly pivot which is okay. Price is above the DP and looks set for further selling and the push down to around 1.1860.
The 4H chart has back to almost touch its 10 exponential moving average for the first time in 10 bars and is unlikely to find its way above that in this move.

The Day Ahead –
Today fundamentals and technical are back in sync, and the message is simple… SHORT With price at present at the same level as yesterday’s open despite a swag of bad fundamental news, this does look a chance to get into this move….again. The only question is why hasn’t it already moved?
German Manufacturing PMI may be just the thing to start a move short..  a bad number will see an aggressive sell, where it would take an great number to see much buying coming back in.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, more strongly short than it has been.  1.2000 will no doubt provide strong support and I will grab profits before that level.

NO TRADE: 
Short entry: I am prepared to take an aggressive entry short on the break of the pivot. It is very rare for me to offer an entry as aggressive as that here but the day has that kind of look to it to me. We may not see a retest, and even a lower high to enter off maybe well into the move. So i will enter as soon as i'm confident the pivot is broken.
Its still possible we will see a short squeeze up to the previous support level, but if we do I will just watch it and wait for my short entry. It is of course possible we will see none of this.

Long Entry: I wont trade long today unless we get a break of 1.2180 and a retest of that level. Would take some big news to get us there I think.

 RED News Today GMT
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI   45.3 45.0

All the best
PBT