Paint me a clearer picture, and ill come and play...

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today. 


Yesterday was a great day for the blog being our first day with over 100 page views. The popularity of the blog seems to still be growing. Thanks for that.
In the market however it was a quiet day as the Euro rested as we predicted and stayed in a tight range. I am expecting more of the same today and a chance for us to refine the most vital of trading skills. Patience... We must take the easy money and wait out the confusing times, knowing the difference is really our edge.

Context
More of the same is likely today with another range bound day possible. The market has made some big moves recently and has little going on at the moment to push it in either direction. We have an ECOFIN meeting today but it is unlikely to achieve much and expectations are reasonably low. Its hard to see what will push the pair out of the range, and until it does, I slow roll in one direction then the other is likely.


Technical Analysis
WE now have the conflicting pictures of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback.
On our 4 Hourly chart it appears the market has started another leg down, but again this is a very steep move and range or retracement is due.
Each time we go short this month the over extension becomes worse, and the next short harder to trade, and yet short still remains my sentiment.

The Day Ahead –
I am going to stay out today and see if the market will paint me a clearer picture tomorrow so i can come and play. What i would really like is a decent retracement this week, and pivots set up short again next week.  
I can see a good case for both directions today, and most likely the market will range until pushed in one direction or the other. 


Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I am expecting to see a few rallies and most likely a test of WP this week.

Short entry: A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especialy to signal some commitment to direction.

Long Entry – There is no long option for me today. It’s not that I don’t think it will go long, it’s just trading into this is not the high probability trade I like.

NO RED News Today GMT

All the best

PBT