Treat it like a fine wine and let it breath. It will improve for us if we give it a little space and time.

Hi and welcome to a new week, and our EUR/USD brief

The week ended well for us with Thursday’s long trade being possible my favorite trade since I have been writing the blog. Many traders don’t like trend-line trades but the most consistent trader I know trades them regularly and trading’s not about the rubbish you read online but what works in the market. We got a fantastic price action trigger and a really, really nice trade.

I don’t trade Fridays but did suggest on Thursday we would see a big push down Friday or Monday and sure enough it turned up on Friday.
Remember to join us from 7.30am Tuesday for Trader Talk Radio, www.anymeeting.com/tradertalkpbt1.

Context
Friday saw a new recent low as Spanish news and  our telltale Spanish bond rates pushed he Euro down again. The market has once again opened the week with a gap. Gaps used to be a rarity but now most weekends seem to provide one.

Technical Analysis
We have the Daily and Weekly pivot practically overlapping if still over extended from monthly pivot. We have the new gap open and the market will be tipped heavily and straight south. However I see an open Gap, a pivot to test and a triple bottom being untested for Resistance. I expect to see the 1.2160 level tested at least before we push down again. However it’s a Monday morning and rule number 1 for the week is let the market pick a direction. While its short here its extended so we need need to treat it like a fine wine and let it breath. It will improve for us if we give it a little space and time. We don’t try and impose our view on it. Should the market decide to it will run my position over like a river over a pebble.
The 4H chart remains with Lower Lows and lower highs.

The Day Ahead –
I will wait and watch to start, we are some way below the Pivots and I will be happier going back towards them than away until we have tested a level.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I expect a couple more weeks of momentum short.
NO TRADE:
Short entry: My favorite trade here would see a rally to test the Previous triple bottom level and a turn short.

Long Entry: I am prepared to be pretty aggressive looking for an entry here, I will need a push up, a retracement and a price action trigger.

NO RED News Today GMT

All the best
PBT