Wait for a break out of the No Trade area

Hi and welcome to a new week for our EUR/USD brief

Thursday saw another set up predicted and another good winner on offer for those hat wanted it. Remember we noted the lower low as the signal short we were looking for.

While I don’t trade or normally Blog on Fridays I put a short piece out advising to watch for the spike long latter in the day. I hope some of you grabbed more pips here.

Context
Italian bond rates have dropped creating a little more confidence in the Euro.
There is not much in news due to help set the direction for the week so we will need to let price action guide us. The next News of any note is when Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow.
The market is had a little bit of a retracement and it will be interesting to see if we get some profit taking today and a continuation up, and if so when the market turns short.

Technical Analysis
The new week sees the pivots lined up in bearish order and while the others are some way from Monthly Pivot, Weekly and Daily are close enough together to open some short side action again.
The 4H chart shows solid support around 1.2165 and this will be a key level for the week. It does look a bit like a double bottom and the possibility of a decent bounce here can’t be ignored

The Day Ahead –
I won’t trade between daily and weekly pivot. This area belongs to the market and will be to choppy for me.  I will wait until it commits to a direction. Then I will jump in and see what I can do
Bias- My overall bias is still short.
It’s possible we will see a continuation of this retracement and hard to predict when we might go short again, but easy to predict it will.
NO TRADE: Between weekly and Daily Pivots
Short entry: Break and then retest of DP, with a lower low.. target 1.2180
Long Entry: Either beak and retest of weekly pivot, with a higher high, followed by a pullback to a higher low, or preferrbaly the same set up on the beak of 1.2270

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% c-0.4%
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.2%

All the best
PBT