Done a great job this week, i wonder if we can get one more

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was another good day for the Blog as we rolled past our 2000th page view and received a couple of emails from traders who are making some money from following us. More importantly they feel they are learning stuff that is helping in other areas of their trading. I do hope you are seeing similar benefits.
Again I am sorry much of today’s report will be similar to yesterdays but the market is what it is and we just need to accept that.
Also again Yesterday saw a nice opportunity for a small win for those who follow us. We needed to be patient and wait for the first committed sell off. We talked about the break of Daily pivot and then break back short. After that point we saw a couple of good entries short as we entered on the lower highs. Its been a really good effort to take some pips out of the messy last couple of days…

We have done a great job this week, i wonder if we will get another chance

 Context
Well the slow drag continues with new 2 year lows the daily normal at the moment but no real momentum. For me Spanish Bonds remain the key indicator of direction on the Euro. Watch the bond numbers and have the direction, Bonds up, Euro down.
Today looks exactly the same as yesterday with price starting under a dropping daily pivot and working its way back towards DP. The key the last two days has been the lower low on the 30 minute chart confirming time to enter. We will be looking for it again today. Note this on the chart its pretty important re timing….

Technical Analysis
This remains the same as we still have the conflicting picture of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback. The Daily pivot is now a similar distance under weekly, as weekly is under monthly (about 160 pips each) and technically a retracement is due.
On our 4 Hourly chart we do seem to be creating a bit of a bottom.

The Day Ahead –
Bias- My overall bias is still short, but with the level off over extension I will want to see a pullback hat gives me a target at the previous low. I am expecting to see a few rallies this week and will be comfortable trading one of these today as we have some distance to resistance. I have no idea who would buy the Euro, and why (other than profit taking) but technically its due.
Short entry: Same as yesterday A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especially, to signal some commitment to direction.  I would especially like to see the Pivot broken and then re-broken short to confirm that direction. Remember we would normally like to see the pivot tested before we go long, but what has just missed on our chart, might have tested on other charts. So while we don't have the test, its close enough we need to be open to the possibility others do.

While i quite like a long today, a break of yesterdays low could see a quick sell off.

Long Entry – I would trade long if I got a lower high above the pivot following an aggressive buy….

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All the best
PBT