Its tough today, but the trend line gives us possibilities

Hi and welcome to our blog, and our EUR/USD brief

It was another good day for the blog followers with a winning short and long trade on the same day. The short trade activated soon after we published and made the DP target, many will have taken half at this stage, and moved the stop to break even. So a small win but a nice win.
The long trade was a classic technical trade with a test of DP, followed by a higher high, and an entry on the higher low. Depending on your broker price got to or just missed target, and did flirt with your stop loss. Different brokers may have given different results here.

Context
The Euro is waiting… and will probably continue to drift slowly south while it waits on news tonight.
The market often ranges in NFP week, but with the Fed toady and ECB tomorrow having  it may well chop around on the that first.

Technical Analysis
It’s a new month and Monthly pivot has come screaming down towards Weekly pivot. Unfortunately DP is right in the middle. With the rising DP, and DP above WP, the technical picture is barely positive.
The 4H chart is currently has a lower mini low, and what appears to be a lower high. We really need to see a break of the previous low to be confident here.

The Day Ahead –
What a mess…. Daily pivot right between Monthly and weekly, we have yesterday’s pattern with pivot rising, and price action breaking down through it, but the pivot has already been re-broken. The 4 hour chart is unclear and we have major news today and tomorrow.
I am afraid todays a day to keep our money and do something else. Don’t get me wrong the news may cause a move, but which way is a guess… I don’t guess..
What we do have today is a good trendline, and we can use that for entries.
Bias- My overall bias is still short, I am sure traders are lining up to sell the peak….
NO TRADE:
Short entry: If we get a break below the trendline and a test of the area of confluence where we have both the trend-line, and the DP providing resistance we could look for a price action confirmation short... I would still be at half risk today...

Long Entry: With DP having been tested, you can make a case long on a run up and a pull back to the trend-line and our minor support level. Again i would need a price action trigger and a half risk trade.

 RED News Today GMT
Tue Jul 31
1:15pm     USD     ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 121K 176K
3:00pm     USD     ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.3 49.7
7:15pm     USD     FOMC Statement
All the best
PBT