Waiting for the Fed

Hi and welcome to our EUR/USD brief for today.

Yesterday was a great day for the blog with record numbers of page views and record numbers also attending Trader Talk Radio. Thanks for the support… I hope it’s helping with your trading. I am sorry much of today’s report will be similar to yesterdays but the market is what it is and we just need to accept that.

Yesterday saw a nice opportunity for a small win for those who follow us. WE needed to be patient and wait for the first committed sell off, and then enter on the lower high as we retested Daily Pivot. There wasn’t a lot in it, but it was the only thing on offer for the day.

Context
Well the EU finance ministers have achieved about what was expected and the market remains unsure of what next. For me Spanish Bonds remain the key indicator of direction on the Euro and yesterdays slight pull back is still well short of a safe area. Watch the bond numbers and have the direction, bonds up, Euro down.
More of the same is likely today with another range bound day possible until later when we get FOMC minutes. The market will wait for the fed statement and may chop around as Bernanke tries to balance the effects. This is a time we may get a sharp directional move so take care during it.

Technical Analysis
This remains the same as we still have  the conflicting picture of the pivots lined up bearishly, but the market looks over extended and in need of a pullback.
On our 4 Hourly chart price has bounced off a long term trendline and we may see a bigger bounce here. We can look for a reversal of Daily pivot but my feeling is we may see a little more buying than that.


Short entry: A lower low followed by a lower high below daily pivot would be our best entry today. We would want to see a more aggressive move down creating the lower low especially, to signal some commitment to direction.  I would especially like to see the Pivot broken and then re-broken short to confirm hat direction.Bias- My overall bias is still short, but I am expecting to see a few rallies this week..

Long Entry – I would trade long with care but we now have more space to resistance, so its possible again.

RED News Today GMT
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -48.5B -50.1B
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

All the best
PBT